Watching The Supreme Court is always frustrating. There is a tendency for things to take a long time.
David Snope filed a petition for writ of certiorari on September 23, 2024. This will be the third or fourth time he has requested a writ of certiorari from the Supreme Court.
It has been granted once, the ruling of the Fourth Circuit court was vacated, and the case was remanded back down to the Fourth for a do-over in light of Bruen.
In November 2024, we were hoping that this case and Ocean State Tactical would both be granted cert. It did not happen.
If cert had been granted by January 16th, the case would have had oral arguments in the fall, with the opinion issuing in August.
As things sit, we might not hear the outcome of this case, if granted cert, until the fall of 2026.
But there are things afoot here.
First, the court heard Bondi v. Vanderstok and published their opinion on March 26th. This was not a direct Second Amendment Challenge, it was more of an administrative challenge. We did not win. Both Alito and Thomas dissented.
Mexico’s lawfare case was heard. We will have an opinion on that before the end of the 2024-2025 term. This is a case where the Supreme Court can slap down the lower courts for abusing the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.
Snope is in regard to Maryland’s “assault weapons” ban. It is one of the many cases where the inferior courts have said things of the sort of “well, some arms aren’t arms under the protection of the Second Amendment.”
Another case, with a docket that looks almost the same, is Ocean State Tactical challenging Rhode Island’s magazine ban. Here, the inferior courts have declared that magazines aren’t really arms under the Second Amendment.
A third case has shown up on the radar.
Antonyuk II is a Second Amendment challenge to New York State’s Bruen tantrum response bill.
The heart of this is New York designating almost every part of the state a sensitive place. Even though Bruen explicitly said that the state couldn’t declare Manhattan a sensitive place, just because there were cops and people there.
All three of these cases are being discussed by the justices, again, this Friday. If we get lucky, we will hear some movement on Monday.
At this point, my tea leaves are missing, my crystal ball has clouded up, and the wife won’t let me sacrifice a chicken to read its entrails.
I haven’t a clue what the justices are going to do. I am holding out hope.
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