I just do not get it. At least that’s what I keep saying. That isn’t as true as it used to be, but I still don’t thoroughly understand it.
We run risk assessments all the time. Most people do a shitty job of it. They conflate probability of occurring with the amount put at risk.
As an example, consider the following bet, “I will bet you this $10 bill at a 3:1 payout.” That means I will get back $30 if I win, and I will forfeit my $10 bet if I lose.
If you can afford to lose $10, you might take that bet.
Now, let’s say that you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Over the course of 8 games, you will win 2 times for $60. You will have bet $80. The house walks away with $20.
This is how casinos make their money. It is not always this obvious, but it is the same thing.
Now consider a second type of bet, one where you are betting $10 on the flip of a coin against $10. The odds and the payout are a match. Over an extended number of plays, you will come out even.
Would you be willing to bet $100 on the flip of a coin? $1000? $100,000? Your life?
This is risk assessment. It is looking at both the probability of the event taking place and the “cost” of the event.
A different example. What is the probability of a power out event taking place over the next 12 months? What is the probability of that power outage lasting for more than 24 hours? What is the probability of that power outage lasting for more than a week?
What is the cost to you or me for each of those events?
For me, a power outage of less than 24 hours is a non-event. We have wood heating for the winter, we have gas stoves for cooking, we have battery backup for our phones, we have books to read.
If the power stays out for more than 24 hours, I need to worry about work. A laptop and a cell connection won’t do it. At that point, I connect the generator to the house, do all the disconnect things, then provide power to the house, so I can do work.
Other than the need to work, there is no other need that we can’t meet with our preparations.
The last time I was traveling, my wife was polite but considered me paranoid. I had lots of ammo and more than one firearm with me. The week after we returned home, she read about a riot about a half mile from where we were staying. Paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.
That’s risk assessment.
But what about “Woman’s reproductive health services?”
The first thing to understand is that anybody who talks about abortion in those terms is lying. It is abortion they are talking about, not “health care.”
We know this because when we point out that there are many more health clinics, specializing in women’s health issues, that doesn’t count as “Women’s reproductive health services.” It is only when the clinics perform abortions that it is considered good enough.
Now a little blunt truth, there are times when an abortion is both medically required and the correct moral choice.
The medical profession has technical names for different procedures. Two common methods are dilation and curettage (D&C) and vacuum aspiration. (I AM NOT A DOCTOR) There is also the “morning after pill.”
My wife wanted children so badly. Her first husband didn’t, so she substituted being the world’s best teacher.
When we were married, I was done having kids. She wanted kids of her own body, not just mine from a previous marriage.
We ended up doing IVF. From that, we got the most wonderful boy-girl twins. Who are going to collage in just a few short weeks.
While I was doing The Commute, to and from NH 4 days a week and then commuting down to MD once a week to be with my family, she came up pregnant.
About 3 or 4 months in, the baby died in utero. This was incredibly difficult on her, and it broke me. The next step was her abortion.
Now, the doctors never called it that. They called it a D&C. It needed to be done because keeping a dead baby in your uterus will cause issues, up to and including death. It was also needed for her mental health.
So, my very pro-life wife has had an abortion. It was an abortion she didn’t want to have. It was medically required.
It turns out that abortions to remove dead babies from the uterus are not uncommon.
When a state bans all abortions, these medically required abortions are often included in that “all abortions”. This is an error.
This is one of the places that women come from when they are a one policy vote, they want there to be a safe medical procedure for the removal of dead babies.
According to my sources, there are several ongoing cases down south where this exact scenario is playing out. Women that wanted babies had their baby die in utero. The way the law was written, they had to become septic before the law would allow a D&C. This situation makes me sick to my stomach.
Which takes us to the next situation, rape.
There is a physical age that a female must reach before she can safely carry a child to term. If a child is below that physical age, abortion isn’t just an option, it should be a requirement.
I do not have a final opinion for forcible rape after that age, but minors are more likely to get a pass. Part of the reason I write these is to help clarify, in my mind, my positions.
Which takes us to all the other rapes. Omitting Alaska, as an outlier with 134/100k, the rate per 100k inhabitants in the US ranges from a high of 76 to a low of 17.
The statistic is listed as “inhabitants.” This includes male and female victims, as does the population. For the sake of math, I’m going to treat these numbers as homogeneous.
In the US, the rape value is 40/100,000 per year. This means that a person has a 0.04% chance of being raped, per year.
According to my first year statistics, this means that there is a 2% chance of a person being raped over a 50-year span.
This does not seem to be close to the 1 in 4 or 1 in 3 numbers that are repeated. It does not matter what the math says, it is what the woman believes.
The common belief is that 1 in 4 collage women are raped while attending collage. In 2020, Botswana had 2,278 rapes for a per capita rate of 89.46/100k. A 1 in 4 would have a per capita rate of nearly 7000/100k.
The numbers are wrong.
Regardless, many women believe that rape is that common.
Which takes us back to the abortion issue.
Under a risk assessment, the event is carrying your rapist’s child to term, and then having to raise that child or give that child up for adoption.
Just the thought of carrying your rapist’s child to term is enough to cause significant stress to a woman. And I understand and empathize with her.
This is scenario, of being forced to carry a rapist’s child to term, is why so many of the women I know say they need “abortion rights”.
Comments
9 responses to “Reproductive Health Care”
I think your statistic might me a little off. I’m sure there are tons more rapes taking place, but the victim does not tell anybody or does not make it official. Also the procedure to take out a dead fetus is called a D&E. The D&E is an effective method of abortion in the second trimester of pregnancy and also a way to remove tissue that remains after a miscarriage.
D&C and D&E are both ways of removing a dead infant from a woman. Generally speaking, D&C is first 12 weeks, and D&E are second 12 weeks, but it isn’t always true. Had to look that one up, because I knew both terms were right, but wasn’t sure which one was which!
probably open a giant can of venomous worms- what I can’t wrap my head around is how abortion has become just about the ONLY thing democrats run on…. something private between a woman, the father and her doctor gets spotlighted and screamed about endlessly… federally funded federally protected… anybody brings it up around me and I walk away without saying a word. “planned parenthood “ is not women’s health..
I don’t get why abortion is the “be all end all” of the Dems, either. I don’t understand why they think you can’t be conservative and still be okay with abortions at some point.
I wish it *could* be left to the mother, the father, and the doctor in question. In a perfect world, that’s all that would be necessary, because the doctor would intervene if this was a “habit” or a problem, rather than an emergency procedure. Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world.
But I will say… Planned Parenthood can be part of women’s health. It’s where I used to get birth control, when I was poor. For tons of my friends, it’s the place to go for mammograms and other women’s tests that they can’t afford elsewhere. It’s hard to find those anywhere OTHER than PP, to be honest (the free at point of service/inexpensive stuff).
I currently desperately need to see a gyn about a physical problem that has nothing to do with pregnancy and everything to do with “womanly stuff I don’t want to talk about on the internet.” I can’t find one. I don’t have insurance at the moment, and most gyn offices won’t even talk to me, never mind do a procedure. I might be able to get into PP… except there aren’t any in NH that I can get into. I’m at the point where I might be going down to MA to get it done, and that makes me upset.
One consideration is how rape is defined. Many women refer to “date rape” – ” I felt I was pressured into having sex with him, ” or having sex willfully, perhaps with inhibitions compromised by alcohol or drugs, then regretting it as equivalent to forced rape, and needing to call it something to justify the remorse and support a vindictive response (vindictive because without that component it’s just consensual sex).
Since the rape accusation occurs after the fact and without witnesses to the action, it gets defined however the woman involved, and society, choose to define it; the integrity of the statistics, and their value, is compromised. Accuracy in data is a prerequisite to proper evaluation of a particular conditionor event; “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less” works fine in a child’s fairy tale but as justification for legal action or societal change it falls a bit short.
When we get to the point at which definitions are more specific and, probably, graded as to degree then the numbers will mean more and the precise problem addressed. “No means no” is an important part of the equation and needs to have equal value to both parties; how the various claims are processed in social and legal senses from that point is important.
As comparison, IIRC, it’s Australia (or might be the UK, I don’t remember), a death is not “murder” until – and unless – it’s prosecuted, it’s “just some dead guy on the sidewalk, never mind the 6 bullet holes,” and without an accurate definition how can one, or a society, properly judge the event and evaluate its seriousness and what to do about it?
And, not to pick on you, but speaking of definitions, “collage” according to Webster is: “an artistic composition made of various materials (such as paper, cloth, or wood) glued on a surface.” “College” is: “an independent institution of higher learning offering a course of general studies leading to a bachelor’s degree,” or “an organized body of persons engaged in a common pursuit or having common interests or duties.” I hope you’re not paying a lot of tuition to teach your kids how to glue pictures to cardboard (I’d buy “it’s a typo” except you used it twice, and that impacts the forcefulness of the point you’re making; if you misused “collage” when you meant “college,” does that also call into question the accuracy of your statistics?).
Read your post on abortion with interest and wanted to chip in.
A little on myself first:
I am unapologetically pro-life, I value human life and believe it is intrinsically valuable and worth protecting—and should be protected at all stages until and unless someone, by their own actions, does something deserving otherwise (namely rape, murder—the typical).
I also believe we are genetically distinct, unique human beings from the moment of conception and that science supports this belief. If we are to value human life, even if there is ANY question of whether something is ‘human’ or not, wouldn’t we want to err on the side of caution?
I also believe no one should be put to death for another’s crime.
I was saddened to hear of your situation with the baby dying in utero. I would agree wholeheartedly that it would need to be removed as a serious threat to the mother. And nothing else you can really do.
I don’t know of anyone arguing this in good faith that wouldn’t include a clause for such, and is pretty standard procedure. When two lives are threatened and only one can be saved, one must always save that life. This was your case.
I think perhaps the term would be better to use ‘elective’ abortion as opposed to what you and your wife went through, which (as I said) was medically necessary.
I also think we both know those calling for abortion and women’s rights are not advocating for these situations.
Now as to the hard cases, such as your point with rape…
I think previous authors here have made your point as well. They have also stated that outlier cases make for bad law, which is a statement I agree with.
Rape that results in pregnancy is perhaps as few as 1 in 1000 cases, or less than 1% of total, so it is much rarer than one would assume. The vast, vast majority of (elective) abortions, 97%, occur to normal, healthy, full-term babies.
I would also add that Roe v Wade was based on a charge of rape, turned out the woman lied. And regretted her decision to bring it to the court also.
If you have a child raped and become pregnant as a result, I would grant you at least to consider an abortion, for again, if her body is too young to carry successfully—both at risk and can only save one, you save the one. I would also like to point out the number of times doctors have been wrong on such issues and both parties be fine.
I agree that carrying a rapist’s child to term would be difficult, and she should receive all the love and support possible.
But if the alternative is killing a helpless child, is it wrong to expect an adult to deal with a difficult situation? One that will end in 9 months?
Is it wrong for an innocent child to die for something their father did?
Should Person A be killed because Person B raped Person A’s mother?
A little known truth is that abortion in such cases does not tend to bring healing to rape victims. Some have reported trauma of the abortion long after the rape trauma has faded. It is hard to imagine a worse therapy for a woman who has been raped than to add the guilt and turmoil of having her child killed.
A child is a child, regardless of how they were conceived. They are no less human. And we should not let our righteous anger and desire for justice and punishment at the father’s actions be transferred onto the most innocent party of them all.
Whether she gives it for adoption or seeks to raise it herself is a question only she can answer.
Singer Ethel Waters was conceived after her 12-year old mother was raped.
Another woman shared her story:
“Thank you. I’ve never heard anyone say that a child conceived by rape deserved to live. My mother was raped when she was twelve years old. She gave birth to me and gave me up for adoption to a wonderful family. I’ll probably never meet her, but every day I thank God for her and her parents. If they hadn’t let me live, I wouldn’t be here to have my own husband and children and my own life. I’m just so thankful to be alive.”
Just wanted to share a different perspective. Hope I’ve given some food for thought
(excerpts are taken from “Prolife answers to Prochoice arguments” by Randy Alcorn. I think you would find this a great read, and well-reasoned, though it may take you places you aren’t comfortable going. It should answer any remaining questions or concerns.
Or I am at your service, for the same.
Thank you for reading this far and most especially, for sharing your story, I know it wasn’t easy.
As someone who has both been raped, and pregnant (though never pregnant *from* a rape), I wanted to chime in.
Being pregnant is not “over after 9 months.” It just isn’t. Your body isn’t your own for months and months after, even if you give the child up and “move on” (which never truly happens, I might add). It can seem like a life sentence, even when you want the child desperately, and when it’s a case of rape or extreme coercion, that makes it even worse. I’m not trying to debunk anything you’ve said, Eric, just wanted to point this particular part out.
Regardless of what people want, abortions will continue. They’ve been going on since long before history was written down, and they’ll go on until the end of the human race. There are simply going to be times when a woman feels she has to terminate a life. The current state of abortion laws in some of the southern states has put women and future children at stake, and in immanent danger, and that’s just… wrong.
I don’t believe in sugar coating things. I’ve had an abortion. I killed a child. I never thought of it as “terminating a fetus” or any other such doublethink. I killed a child. I did it legally, and very early, for a whole bunch of ridiculously complex reasons. I’m not proud of it, but I don’t hide it, either. I’ve also borne a live child that I raised until she was 7 (she went to live with other guardians at that time, against my choice). I helped raise my partner’s children, as well, and am a beloved auntie and parent (though not mom).
I’ve helped convince women to go through with pregnancies rather than get abortions, because it was the right thing to do. I’ve held women’s hands while they had abortions, too. I didn’t like it, anymore than I liked getting it done myself, but that was their choice, as it was mine.
One thing I hear from the Right a lot, is that “many” women use abortion rather than birth control. Now, that’s not my personal experience (and while I don’t have experience around the whole country, I probably talk to a lot more women than others do). I know of a few women who’ve made such poor life choices that they feel abortion is the only way to go, and I consider that to be a mental illness which should be treated as such. But it is an anomaly.
I don’t know (personally) a single woman who was happy about getting an abortion. I’ve never spoken to a woman who was cavalier about abortion. It’s always been a last resort sort of thing. It’s so rarely an “easy decision” that I feel comfortable saying it’s basically never an easy decision.
But I hear from other people that it’s something that women just do. We just go out and get abortions, willy nilly, without a care in the world. I heard that said about me, and about friends, and other women I know. So yeah, I do get my panties in a knot over it. Because that’s not how any woman I know acts. None of us are like that. None of us approach abortion as anything easy, quick, painless, or without serious consideration. It’s always painful (sometimes physical, sometimes emotional, often both).
It makes it easier for the Left to dismiss the arguments of the Right when the Right wants to paint every woman with the same tar and feathers as the mentally ill woman using abortion as birth control. For a long time, I completely dismissed the issues brought up by the Right, because they so obviously had no clue what was actually going on. Because I *actually* speak to women about abortions. I listen. I hear. And so much of what reaches the Left from the Right boils down to “you’re an immoral twat and you should have kept your legs together.” It’s such an insulting simplification of a hugely complex issue.
But for those who question it, look at Texas and Ohio (I think… I’m not looking stuff up right now, so bear with me). Women with much desired babies, who want to continue bearing children, are dealing with the outcome of not being able to get abortions in their states or neighboring areas, because of the laws currently in place and the statements of people in authority in those states. We’re talking about women with dead or dying babies inside them… women with ectopic pregnancies being told that it’s viable… unable to get life saving and/or womb saving surgery. It’s hard to consider that.
I am not a hard line anti-abortionist. The decision to abort for convenience is one the parents must make between themselves, their god, and their morals. Abortion for convenience should not be illegal, nor should it be covered under health insurance or funded with taxpayer dollars. And, I am hardline on that last sentence.
I am, however hard line against calling abortion for convenience “healthcare.” A healthy woman, carrying a healthy child to term is the epitome of healthy. Choosing to abort a healthy child from a healthy woman is the opposite of health care.
Removing a dead fetus from a healthy mother is not abortion for convenience. Aborting a child that is a product of rape or incest is not for convenience either. Aborting a child that has close to zero possibility of living outside the womb is not for convenience in my opinion either. There are medically supportable reasons for taking that action, either physical or mental. If you want to make a living on Only Fans doing creampie videos, find another way to avoid pregnancy. (And find another job… I mean seriously?) Sorry, pay for your own abortions.
I grew up in Canada, originally. Abortion is a right there, but at the time I was there, only up to 12 weeks. After that, there had to be a major circumstance involved to have one. The premise was that birth control was largely free at point of service, and early abortion was available, so there wasn’t any *reason* for having later term abortions. In fact, when I met AWA, he and I had some huge fights about “late term abortions.” I was insistent that “late term abortions” were fine under quite a few circumstances, and he thought I was insane. It wasn’t until literally YEARS later that he discovered that 14 weeks is a “late term abortion” for me… and anything after 21 weeks is “birth.” Suddenly our arguments went away. I did not understand that “late term abortion” in America meant post 30 weeks. I was aghast.
I understand there are sometimes moments in a woman’s life (or in a man’s life, even) where being a parent is going to be a disaster. In my case, I’d been enjoying a variety of illegal substances (I had a very mis-spent youth) and had not been eating well. I was suffering from malnutrition and a few other issues. I talked with my then-partner, and we decided that it was not right to bring a child into my rather polluted body. I had been on birth control, but wasn’t aware at the time that certain drugs cause birth control not to work correctly. Here in America, doctors always let me know (even though I wasn’t on BC pills at the time) but in Canada it was never mentioned. I’m not proud of it. But again, I share it because I was an otherwise healthy woman, and I probably could have physically carried the child to term. Even then, it was the hardest decision I’ve ever had to make.
As for paying… I think that if an insurance provider chooses to offer abortion services among its payees, that’s fine. I don’t think they should be forced or mandated to do so. Some companies will do it, others won’t, and the choice of the people is maintained. I’m okay with that.
I find it interesting that you come down so nasty on sex workers though. I’ve never had a problem with it. Sex work has been around longer than we’ve had writing to describe it. I have always found that it’s despicable that women (because while men do engage in sex work, the majority are women) are forced to do it under the radar, without the protections of the law. That’s another article, though. 🙂