Chris wrote this (UNFINISHED) article on Dec 30, 2013

So I have a small machine shop.  Well sort of, the fact that I have a Southbend 13″ by 5′ tool room lathe and a Bridgeport knee mill sort of implies that it is a bit bigger than “small”.  When comparing to the people I follow on YouTube such as “Mr Pete/Tubalcain”, “Doubleboost”, Keith Finner(sp), Adam, Oxtools and Tom’s Techniques it feels small.


As I started down this path I had already read many books on how to use the lathe and it seems like a simple enough machine.  I’ve read a few more books and watched a boat load of good videos on machining.  What I’ve learned is that the machine is cheap, it is all the stuff you have to get to go with it that gets expensive.

In the shop there are a number of different general operations that take place:

• Metal Removal
• Metal Addition
• Metal Forming
• Metal Casting

Metal Removal

Metal removal is the process of removing unwanted metal.  There was a joke attributed to some famous sculptor “How do you make such beautiful statues?  Well I just remove all the marble that shouldn’t be there.”

Metal removal general starts with a casting or a piece of stock and removes unwanted metal until you get what you want.  The goal is to remove the least amount of metal as possible in the shortest period of time safely.

The Milling Machine

Take one very simple thing.  Holding something on a milling table.  You’ve got this great big table, it has T slots, it has the ability to move a 0.0005 in any direction with the turning of a knob.  And you have no way of holding anything to the table.

Enter the Milling Machine Problem.  A milling machine is simple compared to a lathe.  You attach the work to the table, you set the speed, you insert the tool and then you move the table around until you get the result you want.   Nothing real hard about it.  That is until you realize that attaching work to the table IS the big issue for milling.

So you get your first holding pieces.  This consists of “packing”, “straps”, “bolts and nuts.”  The packing should be just a little taller than the work piece.  The bolt should be closer to the work piece than the packing.  By tightening the nut you squeeze the work against the table.  Now you have the work attached to the table.

Except that the work is likely not aligned with the table.  So before you can actually attach the work to the table you have to make sure that the work is “perfectly” in line with the axis of motion of the table.

Well, this goes on and on and on with figuring out how to attach and align things.  (The quick answer is that you attach something to the table with a small space, such as from an index card, between the item and the table.  Then you mill that thing by moving the table in only one axis.  This gives you something that is perfectly aligned with the table.  From there you attach work to the table and tap it so it is hard against the milled surface, thus aligning the work with the table.)

It turns out that many operations can be done with just a simple vise.  If you attach a vise to a milling table then you can attach the work to the vise (close the jaws TIGHT) and be ready to work.

Well, to do this you need to put the vise on the table then to adjust it so that it is exactly aligned with the table movement.  This requires that the milling vise have a jaw that is flat.  The jaw must be square to the bottom of the jaw mouth.  The jaw mouth must be parallel to the bottom of the vise and the bottom of the vise must be flat so it can rest flat on the milling table.

You can pay anywhere from $300 to well over $800 for a six inch milling vise.  But things don’t stop there.  In order to get the work above the jaws the work has to either be tall enough to begin with or you have to put some sort of packing under the work to lift it up.  This is done with parallels.  Well parallels come in an amazing array of different types.  There are “wavy” parallels that are designed to fit under very narrow items and which can be squeeze a little and still maintain their lift.  There are narrow parallels (0.125″) as well as 0.250 and 0.500″ parallels.

You need an indicator holder that can be held in the spindle so that as you move the table you can see if the vise is aligned with the table movement.  You need hammers to pound the work down to make sure it is sitting flat on the parallel.  You need a stop so that when you put something back in the vise it ends up in exactly the same place again.  You need V-Blocks which can come as matched pairs and are precision ground/machined which are used to hold round things.  And you still need other hold down devices for when the vise can’t be used.

So at this point you’ve added a few thousand dollars worth of stuff to hold things down and to measure/indicate things.  (Measure is to figure out exactly how big something is.  This is done via micrometers, calipers, scales and other measurement tools.  Indicating is to compare to readings in some way, for example knowing that this end of the vise jaw is 0.001″ closer to the spindle than the other end.)

Now that you have everything held in place you need a way to cut things.  This is done via tooling.   For a milling machine this is via end mills, fly cutter, face mills, drills, reamers, boring heads and bars, round overs, slotting saws, T slot cutters, woodruff key cutters and other things I don’t know about.

End mills are multi-point cutters, the are relatively small in size, less than 0.750 inches.  They can be center cutting so they can plunge straight into the work or they can only cut from the side.  They can have square corners or they can have rounded corners to live a fillet.  They can be used to cut a grove or widen one.  They can be used to completely surface the top of the work but it takes more passes with an end mill than a fly cutter.

A fly cutter is a single point cutter.  A cutting tool is inserted into the fly cutter and locked in place.  The cutter spins and exactly one point of the cutter touches the work.  Fly cutters come in many different sizes from 0.750 to over 2.000″ in cutting diameter.  They are designed to cut a small amount off the top of the work to make the top flat (and parallel to the table which should be parallel to the bottom of the vise jaw which should then make the work parallel to the bottom side if that bottom side is already milled flat)

Then there are face mills.  These are big honking things that have multiple cutting points and are designed to do the same job as a fly cutter.

So now we know that we need measuring and indicating tools, work holding devices, and cutting tools.  But some how we have have to be able to connect those cutting tools to the spindle of the milling machine.  This is done via a tool holder.  The type of tool holder I use is called an R-8.   This gizmo is an arbor that is inserted into the spindle.  First it is cleaned of all oil or other contaminants.   This is then inserted into the spindle (which should also be wiped down).  A grove in the side of the tool engages a pin inside the spindle.  This pin is there just to hold the arbor in place as it is pulled into the spindle.  At the top of the arbor is a threaded hole.  A long bar which has a hex shape on the top passes through the spindle and engages the threads in the arbor.  By tightening the draw bar the arbor is pulled up into the spindle.  When firmly seated the friction between the spindle and the arbor  is high enough to keep the arbor from spinning in the spindle as it cuts the work.

At the other end of the R-8 spindle can be many things.  The most common are end mill holders, collets, drill chuck arbors, arbors for boring heads and arbors for saws and shell mills.  A end mill holder has a precision hole in it which an end mill can be inserted.  A set screw is tightened to hold the end mill in place.  A collet has a hole in the very end as well, as the collet is pulled up into the spindle it squeeze the hole closed.   This means that it is very easy to change tooling which fits the collet.  Collets come in many nominal sizes which means that most standard sized round can be held very securely in them.

So now we have measuring, indicating, work holding, cutting tools, work positioning, and tool holders.  To that we need to add some optional but very helpful things.

The first is cooling.  As metal is removed by a cutter both the work piece and the cutter heat up.  To keep this under control the tool and or work needs to be kept cooled.  In the simplest way this is simply a squirt bottle or sprayer that allows you to put cutting fluids where they are needed.  A bit more extensive is using a misting system finally there is flood cooling.  Flood cooling is where the coolant is poured in a continues stream, often via re-circulating pumps.  The biggest problem with flood cooling is that the spinning tools will throw the coolant everywhere.  Mist cooling works a bit better but requires compressed air.  Using spray bottles works well to begin with.

After this is the power feed.   Most milling is performed via a back and forth motion of the table.  Each full rotation of the crank moves the table 0.200″ which means that to move the table 6 inches requires 30 full revolutions.  Even when the table is perfectly adjusted moving the table back and forth a few dozen times can get tiring.  At the same time if the speed at which the crank is turned changes then the surface might not have as nice of a a finish as wanted.

A power feed allows for controlled feed rate which is often very desirable as well as reducing the amount of effort it takes to complete a full operation.  (It is often the case that the cut is made at a slow feed rate but the movement of the table back to the start point is done at a much higher speed).  My machine has what is known as a “Mechanical feed” which has some parts which are damaged and should be replaced.  Unfortunately the part is no longer made.  Bridgeport doesn’t even acknowledge that the unit ever really exists.  Fortunately, anything on a Bridgeport that is not a casting can be made on a lathe plus mill.

The last piece of tooling for a mill is a DRO or Digital Read Out.  This consists of a pickup head attached to the stationary part and a “scale” attached to the moving part.  Thus for a 3 axis system there would be a scale attached to the table, the saddle and the knee.  The pickups would be attached to the saddle (to read the table location), the knee ( to read the saddle location) and the base/machine (to read the knee location).

The nice thing about a DRO is that it eliminates the problem of dealing with “backlash”.

Backlash is the “space” between gears and threads that exist in order to allow them to move freely.  You can see this by putting a nut on a bolt.  You should be able to wiggle the nut up and down a little bit as long as it is not snugged up to the end of the treads or tight against something.  This wiggle is backlash.  It can easily be a 10 thousands or more. 

Since the DRO reads exactly where the table is rather than how much the feed screws are rotated you can tell exactly where the spindle is relative to the table.  In addition a DRO is easier to read (big numbers on a display rather than small hash marks on a dial) and will often have special features to help with common operations.  (Bolt patterns, center of two points, automatic offsets)

Power feed units run a around $700 but might require a new lead screw which is a few hundred more.

Given a day to think about it another “tool” shows up.  A rotary table.  A rotary table is a table that clamps to the main mill table.  It can be turned a controlled amount.  Using a rotary table a circular path can be milled or a series of holes can be placed in a circle.  Drill a hole, rotate the table exactly 60 degrees, drill another hole.  Six holes later you have a “perfect” 6 hole pattern.

In addition a rotary table that can be placed vertically can be used to mill the sides of something or the top of something.  This would allow you to make gears or to make a hex at the end of a round bar.  All in all a very useful, if expensive, extra.

The lathe

I’ve been saying for more than a few months that the lathe is the most complex machine that I’ve ever used.  Just getting ready to use it takes time.  There are something on the order of 25-30 different points that should be oiled before starting work, not counting the ways.  There are 30+ different controls.

1. power switch, fwd, rev, off
2. belt tension lever
3. step belts
4. Bull gear engagement pin
5. back gear lever
6. power feed screw control: fwd, rev, neutral
7. high/low range feed screw control
8. high/medium/low feed screw control
9. tumbler control
10. carriage stop position clamp
11. carriage stop adjustment
12. carriage motion control
13. cross feed motion control
14. compound slide motion control
15. compound slide rotation
16. power feed clutch
17. power feed selector, carriage, cross feed, neutral
18. split nut control
19. threading dial positioning
20. Tool post rotation
21. Tool holder height adjustment
22. Tool holder clamp
23. taper attachment engagement clamp
24. taper attachment taper selector
25. tail stock clamp
26. tail stock positioning
27. tail stock quill control
28. tail stock quill lock
29. cross feed graduation dial setting
30. cross feed graduation dial lock
31. compound slide feed graduation dial setting
32. compound slide feed graduation dial lock
33. follow rest adjustments * 2
34. steady rest attachment and clamp
35. steady rest position * 3 
36. Chuck
    1. jaw selection (steps pointing in or steps pointing out)
    2. scroll control to open or close jaws OR 4 worm gears to close 4 jaw checks independently
    3. chuck selection
    4. clamping to face plate
    5. collet controls
    6. follow rest attachment

In addition to all of the above is tool selection.  We select tools for both the tail stock (drill chuck with the right bits, dead center, live center, bull nose center, half center, specialized center) and the tool post (cut off, turning tools (100s of choices), facing tools (100s of choices),  boring bars/tools (100s of choices), threading tools (internal, external, left/right handed, forming or not), indicator holders)

Well I think you get the idea…  There are lots and lots of controls and choices for doing lathe work.  Part of that is because you can do so much on a lathe.  Not only can you do turning but with the right attachments you can also do some milling work.

The Bench Grinder

It turns out that many things need tools ground to the right shape.  The bench grinder is used to shape High Speed Steel (HSS) to the right shape to cut.  These cutters are used in the lathe, in boring bars, in fly cutters.  In addition it is sometimes best to use the bench grinder to just grind a little bit more off of something to make it fit.

The Horizontal Bandsaw

It turns out that many many times you need to work with stock that is just about the correct size.  While small things can be fed through the lathe spindle larger things can not.  In addition a long rod in the spindle tends to bounce around.  The benefit is that you waste less because you can extend the rod out to working distance, do your work, cut off the piece, then advance the rod to repeat the operation.  This is quick, easy and wastes almost no stock.

If the stock is to big to fit through the spindle or just to long then it will need to be cut.  The horizontal bandsaw is the best tool for this operation.  A medium capacity saw will take stock up to 6×6 inches.  The one I happen to have takes stock up to 9×6.

While it might take a while to make it all the way through such a large piece of metal the bandsaw will eat its way through.  The biggest problem is when the piece is wide there is a huge surface area that the band moves across.  This makes it very difficult for the blade to cut.

The Vertical Bandsaw(missing)

While the horizontal bandsaw is the right thing for cutting bar stalk for cutting plate it often just can’t and when it can it is very slow and clumsy.  The vertical bandsaw can be used for cutting bar stock (bar stock is anything that is nominally small in cross section compared to its length.  Nominal because a piece of 8″ round bar stock 6″ long is still considered bar stock, even though it has a larger cross section than length)

A good vertical band saw will cut 1″ thick steel plate at a reasonable rate.  It goes much faster with AL and thinner stock.  The down side is that it normally will have a limited throat allowing a maximum length of 14-17″.  This is not normally an issue.

In perspective the horizontal bandsaw is normally used to cut stock for use in the lathe and the vertical for cutting stock to use on the mill.

The Shaper(missing)

This is a device that has a moving head with a single point tool.  The shaper head moves straight in and out.  On the back stroke the head is lifted slightly so it doesn’t touch the work.  At the end of the back stroke the work is advanced slightly to the side.  The head moves forward with the tool down and cut a single sliver off.  This is used to make things “flat”.

The Shear(missing)

This device is used to cut a piece of metal.  It can be used to cut bar stock or sheet stock.  As long as the piece fits in the shear and the shear has the capacity to cut it then the piece can be sheared.

In general the bigger the shear the thicker (and stronger) the material can be.  Thus a small bench mounted shear might only be able to cut through 22″ of 20 gauge mild steel while a “ironworker” with a 50 ton hydraulic press might be able to shear mild steel up to an 1/4″ thick and 40 inches long.

Steel mills use shears that can cut huge pieces of metal to size, often these shears operate on red hot metal (metal in the plastic phase)

Cutoff Wheels/Angle Grinder

A cutoff wheel removes metal via a grinding method.  A thin disk is spun at high speed and it grinds through metal.  Depending on the size and shape this can be fast or slow.  It is possible to cut through sheets and plates using this method if a bandsaw is not available.  In addition an angle grinder is very portable so can be used in places where a bandsaw can not.

Metal Addition

Unlike wood working in metal working you can add metal.  This is done with welding which creates a molten puddle of metal to which more material is added.  You can also use a method of spraying molten metal onto a piece of heated stock to build up missing parts.  Welding can also be used to connect two or more pieces of metal together.

Metal can also be fitted together so tightly that the become like one item.

Metal Forming

This is the process of deforming or bending metal.  It can be applied to bar stock or to sheet metal.  It can be done cold or hot.  A blacksmith does an extensive amount of metal forming.  By heating the metal to a plastic state and then hitting it the blacksmith can make the metal flow to different places.

Metal can be cold worked as well.  By hitting sheet metal with hammers with curved faces on top of wooden blocks with cups different shaped curves can be created.  Metal can also be rolled to create bends or run through rollers to make long straight curves.

Metal forming can bend, stretch, compress or create complex forms.

Metal can also be formed by pressing between two die.

Metal Casting

Where as in wood working you start with a tree and then remove wood till you get what you want, in metal you can liquefy the metal and then pour it in molten form into a mold.  Once the metal is cooled it is removed from the mold and then can be worked via other methods into a final result.

The most common example of this is a cast iron pan.  With this a mold is made and molten iron/steel poured in.  After the metal is cooled the excess metal is removed and you have a pan ready to use.

More complex objects are often cast in pieces, the pieces are then machined and the machined pieces connected together.  A common example of this is the block from a car engine.

Metal casting is a multi-step process.  In general it consists of making a pattern.  Making a mold of that pattern.  Potentially removing the pattern from the mold.  Melting the metal.  Pouring the metal into the mold.  Then extracting the finished product from the mold and finally removing the excess metal.

There are three major types of pattern/molds:

• Reusable pattern
• Lost pattern
• Reusable mold

With a reusable pattern a frame is placed over/around the pattern.  A special mixture of clay, sand and water is packed around the pattern.  The frame is flipped over and another frame carefully placed on top of the first frame.  More sand is packed (rammed) into the frame.  Holes are cut to allow molten metal to reach the pattern and vent holes added to make sure that any gases generated during the pour can escape.  Finally the two frames are opened up and the pattern removed for use later.  The two forms are put back together in preparation for the pour.

With a lost pattern a pattern is constructed and then put into a frame.  The sand mixture is packed around the pattern.  The holes are cut for the metal to be poured into.  When this is done either the pattern is cooked out of the mold or it is left in place to be destroyed by the molten metal.

Lost wax is using a pattern made from wax.  The mold is cooked and wax melts and is poured out the fill holes.  When the molten metal is added the remaining wax is burned off.

Lost foam patterns are just left in place.  When the molten metal hits the foam the foam is destroyed/burned off.  You can see this process by applying a flame to Styrofoam.   The foam, as it melts, takes up much much less space and the small amount of material left behind is rapidly destroyed/burned off by the molten metal.

Reusable molds are designed so that they can survive molten metal being poured directly into them.  The two (or more) parts of the mold are connected together.  The molten metal is poured in.  When the molten metal is removed the molds can be quickly cleaned and reused.  This method could be used for example to cast aluminum items in cast iron molds.

In order to cast an item a mold has to be constructed.  The type of mold that I’m interested in is called “green sand” which means it consists of a frame, called a flask, which is packed (rammed) with a sand, clay, oil/water mixture.  The sand used is normally very fine and when it is properly mixed you can take a clump of it squeeze it in the palm of your hand and then see your palm print in the clump.  The clump will hold this shape and when stressed will break cleanly rather than crumple into pieces.

Most flasks are two pieces but there are flasks that have more than just two pieces.  A very simple pattern, one with a flat surface, is placed on the molding board.  Parting dust is distributed over the pattern. The bottom flask, called the drag, is placed over the pattern.  The green sand is then passed through a sieve into the drag until the pattern is partially covered.  This removes any big clumps are left over bits of metal from the last pour.

Once there is sand in the flask a ram is used to tamp down on the sand, compressing it.   More sand is added and rammed up.  A big flask will have ridges around the inside to help grip the rammed up sand.  Filled flasks can be very very heavy so it is important to use the right sized flask.  Once the drag is filled to the top a straight edge is run across the top of the flask “striking off” the sand that extends over the top edge.  This gives a flat surface.

The drag is then flipped over, a parting dust is sprinkled over the entire exposed drag top.  This is the green sand and the pattern.  The top of the flask, called a cope, is then placed over the drag.  There are normally aligning pins to make this happen in a repeatable way.

If it is a simple pattern then sand is sieved over the pattern, rammed up, then more sand is added until the cope is full.  The cope is then struck off.  A sprue cutter is then inserted to cut a hole down to the parting line (the line between the cope and drag in the sand).  A small well can be formed with a spoon or knife to make a funnel.

If the pattern is big enough a riser will be added as well.  This is just like a sprue except it will be filled from the bottom instead of the top.  I.e. molten metal is poured into the sprue, fills the space where the pattern exists and then continues filling the cavities including the riser.  As the metal cools it will contract sucking metal from the sprue and any risers to keep the pattern full of metal.

After the sprue and optional riser(s) are cut and the sand removed the cope is lifted off the drag and put upside down on the molding board.  The parting dust helps keep the sand from the drag from sticking to the sand in the cope.  Sort of like flouring a cake pan to help the cake come out of the pan without sticking.

Once the cope is separated from the drag runners are cut by hand from the sprue and riser(s) to the pattern.  The runners need to be large enough that the metal flows quickly and freely from the sprue to the pattern cavity and from there to any risers.  The depth of the sprue should be slightly deeper than the depth of the runners.  This way any sand or junk that gets knocked down the sprue is left at bottom of the sprue and not carried into the casting proper.

At this point the pattern is removed from the drag.  Normally there are a couple of small holes in the bottom of the pattern.  A screw or eye screw is carefully threaded into these holes.  The screws are then gently rapped to loosen the pattern in the mold and then the pattern is carefully lifted out leaving a cavity behind.  Any sand is carefully removed, never with compressed air.  As one pundit put it: Using compressed air is a good way to get all of the sand out of your flask and all over the work shed.

Anything that is wrong with the cavity that can be repaired by hand is now down.  If the cavity isn’t right it is time to knock out the sand and start over again.

Once the cavity is right in the sand the cope is lifted up and flipped over again to be carefully realigned with the drag.  This means that the sprue and risers will correctly align with the runners cut in the drag.

At this point more molds can be made up and when all of the molds are ready they are moved to the casting area.  The casting area needs to be free from moisture and the top of the sprue has to be lower than the height from which the metal will be poured.  I.e. don’t put the flask on top of your table and then expect to lift 10-30 lbs of molten metal in crucible high enough to pour smoothly.

Note: Aluminum weighs in at about 5lbs per qt (5.2359787 lbs/liter at 661C) and Iron is around 15 lbs per qt (15.388266 lbs/liter at 1538C).

Now that the molds are ready it is time to melt some metal.  The furnace is started and a crucible placed inside.  Ingots or scrap metal is then added to the crucible a little at a time.  You don’t want to add the metal so rapidly that the pool of already molten metal cools so much that it solidifies.

At this point some things are added to the molten metal to declassify it and to make any impurities rise to the top.  These impurities are scooped off and put to the side to be discarded later.  The crucible is then lifted out of the furnace with lifting tongs.  It may be transferred to a pouring device or the tongs themselves be used for pouring.

The crucible is then positioned over the sprue and the metal is quickly poured.  The metal will immediately start to cool as it comes in contact with the “cold” sand so the pour has to be rapid enough that the molten metal can get everywhere it needs to go with out solidifying.  This is why it is hard to cast thin items.  The metal solidifies before it reaches all the parts of the pattern cavity.

Once the mold is filled the crucible can be used to fill other molds or returned to the furnace for more metal to be melted.   The important thing is that when the pour is done ALL of the metal in the crucible needs to be poured out.  Often the metal is poured into ingot molds for use with the next melt.

The metal is allowed to cool to make sure it is completely solid and a bit more.  There is no reason to rush this process.  Finally the flasks with molds and metal are moved to the knock out area.  Here the casting is removed from the sand and as much sand as possible is recovered for reuse.   The castings are brushed and poked and prodded until as much sand as possible is cleaned from them.

When the casting is cooled enough the runners are cut off which also removes the sprue and risers.  This metal is returned to the raw metal for use in another melt.  At this point the raw casting is either sent to finishing or to the machine shop for machining.

Finishing would be using buffers and grinders to remove the last of the runners.  This is all that needs to be done for things like cast iron pans.

One of the first castings I hope to attempt is to make a cast aluminum pan.  I’ll use one of my current cast iron pans as the pattern and then cast the aluminum equivalent.

Pattern Making

Pattern making is the art of creating something that will create the correct cavity in a mold.  The requirements are simple: The pattern needs to be able to be placed into the flask and rammed up then removed without destroying the cavity in the mold.  In addition the pattern needs to make correct support cavities to hold any cores that are added.

Consider a simple casting that has an axle that goes through it.  The pattern could be made such that item is cast as one solid piece.  After that casting is sent to the machine shop and the hole for the axle will need to be drilled and then bored to size.  Most of the metal that is removed during this process is likely to be lost.  Collecting chips is a pain and they are often contaminated with oils and cutting fluids.  They might also be contaminated with different metal.  You really don’t want to have steel/iron chips in with your aluminum.

I’m sure that using magnets would work to some extent but it would be a lot of work.  Normally when metal recovery is going to be done the mill/lathe is cleaned of all other metals and then the milling takes place.

Regardless, the fact of the matter is that having to machine a complete bore through a casting is time consuming and a pain.  In some cases it is impossible without special drills to make the hole deep enough to go from one side to the other.

Thus is born the “core”.  A core is merely a casting in sand or other material that can be placed in the cavity created by a pattern to make the hollow.  In the example at hand the pattern would have to cylinders attached where the axle would go extending outward.  This would create a hole in the mold at both sides.  The core, which looks like a rod, would then be placed between these holes filling in an area where the axle will go.  Now when the mold is closed over the core and molten metal is poured into the mold it flows around the core.

When the mold is opened and the casting is removed the core can be removed as well.  This is sometimes done just by soaking the casting and core in water.  There are a couple of ways of making these cores, one is with “liquid glass” another is with a mixture of grains baked in the oven.  It doesn’t really matter how the cores are made as long as the are self supporting and can be removed after the fact.

In some cases people will use steel rods as cores in aluminum castings.  After the casting cools the steel rod is pressed out of the casting.

Besides cores patterns can also be made in parts.  The simplest is the “split pattern.”  Again using our example of an axle housing

(The article was unfinished, and ended here.)

Chris wrote this article on Aug 17, 2013.

A knurled knob and lug to stud adapter. Made by ME!

A few weeks ago I bought a metal lathe and milling machine. I’ve slowly been collecting tools and material to actually accomplish something. Mostly I’ve been cleaning, oiling adjusting and just getting everything “just right”.

One of my latest purchases was this indicator holder, it is held in a regular or quick change tool holder and is designed to attach to a stud on the indicator.  If you look at the fuzzy picture of the indicator you can see one “stud” which is at the right.  But it is way to big to fit into the clamp on the holder.  It does turn out that the stud at the top is the right size but I found that out after I was mostly done.  And I’m not sure I would use it as it is very short.

On the back of the indicator is a “lug” which is this loop thing on the back.  That isn’t very helpful by itself.  Of course there are adapters to put a stud into the lug so they can be attached.  I went to my two different indicator holders and pulled out the stud adapter and attached it to the indicator.

Here is the adapter attached to the indicator.  The knurled nut is tightened and that locks the stud in place.

Unfortunately there is a problem with this adapter, it is the wrong size!  It is too big.  It does not fit into the holder.

I did try but the clamp does not fit.  This gives me two choices, make a larger clamp which is primarily a milling operation on steel I don’t have or make a new stud adapter.

The first step is to draw a picture and measure everything.  The stud has three parts, the stud, the lip on the stud and the threaded part.  I measure all the parts and then go to figure out what size thread it is.  And it isn’t any normal thread.  My gage refused to identify it.  And the size doesn’t match anything I have.  Let’s think for a moment, oh yeah, I bought this from Grizzly which imports 99% of its stuff which means it must be *metric*.  15+ years ago and 6 moves ago I bought a set of metric taps and dies.  Since that time half the dies have gone missing and all the taps.

I go to double check and it turns out that there is exactly ONE tap remaining… And the gods shine on me it is the right tap for this thread and I have a matching die for it.

On the drawing I have the sizes of the original and then off to the right the range of sizes that the clamp supports.  So now it is time to start the process of making my stud adapter.

I start with the stud piece.  First I put a piece of 1/2″ 12L14 steel rod in.  The end is faced and then I use Dykem blue for the first time and mark the location of the shoulder.  With the new tooling it is turned down to size quickly and easily.  To easily.  The first attempt I turned the stud to small and had to cut that part off and throw it away.

2nd try and the stud ends up exactly the right size.  I test it in the clamp and it is a perfect fit.  Yeah!!!!  Now that I’ve completed the stud I cut it off to length, flip it around face it to length.  The finished surface is protected from the chuck jaws with a piece of 0.005 thick brass shim.  After it is faced I mark the shoulder and turn the threaded section to size.

Done with that I cut the threads with a die.  Unfortunately it is a cheap die and it rips one thread but there is enough left to work.  A few touches of the file and the sharp, finger cutting, edges are broken and it looks finished.   I test with the original knurled knob and it works!  Yeah.

For the next two hours I stare at the knob trying to figure out the order of operations for the knob.  If I cut the small section I won’t be able to hold that in the chuck safely and turn the rest of the piece.  In addition I don’t have a piece of rod the right size.

The answer finally hits me.  Step one I put a piece of 1″ rod in the lathe and mark for a shoulder.  I marked it for 0.750 but I should have made it a bit further.  No real problem

Next I turn the rod to the larger diameter.  0.540 inches.  And I got it right within 0.0005.   Then it is time for a tool I’ve never used before, the knurling tool.  The wheels of the tool are pressed hard into the metal rod and if it is adjusted correctly it cuts a beautiful knurl.  Of course I adjusted it incorrectly to begin with.  I got it right and was able to cut a knurl.

I now have a knurl but I need to cut the relief.  No problem.  I just turn to size and clean up the shoulder, break the corners.  Then I center drill the piece, drill for tapping.  I should have drilled the clearance hole next but I waited on that.

I tapped the hole and that worked wonderfully!  I know have a 4 ft section of 1 inch rod with a knurl at one end with a hole drilled and threaded.  Out comes the cutting tool and I part off the knob just a little long.

And then my break through… I thread the knob on to the stud, remount the stud with the protective shim and quickly face the knob to size, cutting the screw to length at the same time!  A quick touch up of the corners with a file and the knob is finished!

Last step, take the knob off and touch up the end of the screw with a file to make that edge gentle and finished.


Only about 2 hours to make something that likely would cost me less than $5.00, if I could find it.  Well worth it!

This article was written by Chris on Nov. 13, 2012.

What is risk assessment?

Risk assessment is the process of determining the relative probability and consequence of taking an action in response to an event. In risk assessment we are looking at the probability of an event taking place, the actions we take in anticipation of the event, and the consequences of each action if the event does or does not take place.

It is important to include the action “do nothing” as one of the potential actions.

At the end of the risk assessment we will have the ability to look at all of the potential outcomes, the likelihood of each outcome, as well as how acceptable each outcome is.

For any event there is a probability of that event taking place. What is the probability of the power failing tonight for more than an hour? What is the probability of the power failing in the next 6 weeks for more than an hour? What is the probability of power failing sometime in the next 6 months for more than a day?

Each of the above named events has a probability. Where we live, the probability of losing power for more than 5 minutes sometime in the next 12 months is near 100%. The probability of losing power for more than 6 hours sometime in the next 12 months is closer to 40%. These are very rough numbers and are the result of looking at history of power failures in our area. It is also the result of looking at preventive maintenance by the power company in our area.

Identifying an event and assigning the probability of the event happening is the first step in risk assessment.

For each of the above events we can make a list of actions we can take in anticipation of these events. The following are some of the actions we can take in anticipation of a power failure event.

• Do nothing
• Buy and install a full building power backup system (UPS)
• Buy and install a full building power system.
• Buy a portable generator and install a generator feed with switching capability for the building.
• Buy a portable generator and some extra extension cords
• Set aside $500 to buy a portable generator and some extra extension cords if the event takes place.
• Buy extra candles, some oil or Coleman lanterns and a camp stove along with some sleeping bags.

The next step is the hard step. Each of these actions needs to be evaluated in terms of what the consequences are of the event happening or the event not happening for each action.

To put it differently, the event will or will not take place. For each action you have identified, you have to identify the consequences of taking that action if the event does take place as well as if event does not take place.

Here’s a simple example: A standing dead tree will fall on the house. The probability is low. One possible action: I will cut the tree down now so it will fall safely away from the house. The consequence of taking no action and the tree falling is that our house is damaged and maybe somebody is hurt. Also, the contents of our house are likely to be damaged. The consequence of taking no action and the tree NOT falling is that there is no change. The house is still at risk but nothing has happened. The consequence of cutting down the tree is that I have to buck it up and turn the tree into firewood. The consequence of cutting down the tree which would NOT have knocked it over is that I have to buck up the tree and turn it into firewood.

Of the four possible outcomes, 2 are good, 1 is very bad and 1 is no change in condition.

An approaching hurricane changes the probability of the event taking place which changes the risk assessment which led me to go out and cut down the tree.

In the following table we go back to our power outage event and list our actions and the consequences of taking that action if the event takes place and if the event does not take place.

Power Goes Out For 24 Hours
Action	Happens	Does Not Happen
Do nothing	Frozen goods start to melt, no internet, no water pump, no electric heat, no electric fans, no hot water (and maybe more)	Nothing
Install Full Building UPS	Nothing happens. Use up some fuel.	$15,000-$25,000 gone
Install Full Building Backup Power	Power goes out to everything for 3 to 5 minutes	$5,000-$6000 gone
Buy Portable Generator	Power failure to house. Extension cords have to be run. Some items will not have power. All 220V (well pumps, furnace blowers, electric dryer will need special handling or might not work at all. Fuel use will have to be monitored	$200-$1000 gone
Put aside $500	Power goes out. You have to get to a store that still has a generator. Buy generator. Buy gas container. Buy gas. Get generator home and hooked up like above.	Nothing
Get electric free equipment	Computers and internet go down. People gather around the wood fired stove for heat. People go to bed earlier because candles or oil light not bright enough. People talk to each other. Food is cooked over wood or propane stove.	A few hundred dollars are spent on food, candles, an extra tank of propane for the grill.

Setting up a table like this helps us understand the different possible outcomes. We get to see the good side and the bad side of each and how we can evaluate which choices are best for us.

The Complexities

Unfortunately, risk assessment is not a simple process. In fact it is very complex due to interactions between different actions and events.

Let’s consider an example of such an action. It is 9/11/2001 and then-President Bush is informed that four aircraft have been hijacked. He is told that there is actionable intelligence stating that the hijackers are going to fly the aircraft into the World Trade Center, the Capitol Building in DC and the White House.

He has two choices. He can let the events play out and the hijackers MIGHT actually do what is predicted, or he can push the destruct button on the aircraft, causing them to be destroyed instantly with loss of the lives of everybody onboard.

The risk assessment says that there is a 95% chance that 5,000 to 30,000 people will lose their lives if he lets the events unfold.

If he pushes the button there is a 100% chance that 200-400 people will die on those aircraft. Does he push the button? Would you push the button? Could you kill 400 people when nobody might die if you don’t?

The consequences then cascade from there. We know the consequences of those aircraft destroying the World Trade Center buildings. We know the horrible cost in lives lost, in families ripped apart, and of health issues for those that were there. We know how even today we pay the price in freedoms lost when we go to board an aircraft.

What of the consequences if he had pushed the button? He would have gone down in history as a mass murder. “He killed 400 defenseless people!”, “He didn’t KNOW they would have crashed the aircraft into those buildings; everybody knows that hijackers always fly someplace and then demand something.”, “It was all a government plot, there were never any hijackers, he lied and people died!” Those are some of the things that would have been said.

What would never have been said was, “He saved the lives of tens of thousands of people.” Because we would never have known the results of him NOT pushing the button.

One of the real problems with risk assessment is that successful risk assessment means nothing happened. The only visible consequence of the assessment and choosing an action is that there was some cost that a bean counter can see.

Avoiding the “Dead Baby Story”

People react much more strongly to a good emotionally driven story than they do to numbers, logic or reason. A dead baby story is exactly that, a strong, emotionally driven story used get people to make a decision. The decision could be a good one or a poor one but it is impossible to judge due to the nature of it. A poor decision is one made with out regards to fact or logic.

Dead baby stories are used all the time to explain why something should be outlawed or forbidden. “I once heard that somebody put razor blades in apples so don’t ever accept fresh fruit when trick or treating”, “A friend of a friend drowned because she was wearing her seatbelt and couldn’t get free when her car went in the river.” These are examples of “dead baby” stories. In almost all of these stories, something terrible happened to somebody or something, which pulls on the heart strings. However, the probability of the event in question was very, very low.

The reason they are called “Dead Baby Stories” is often the story involves some child being hurt or killed. “You should never have a gun in your house. I read a story where a 2 year old got a hold of his father’s pistol and accidentally killed himself with it.”

One of the real problems with not getting caught up with a dead baby story is that sometimes they are real events with real consequences. There are babies that died because the bathwater was too hot. There are people that died because they couldn’t get out of their seat belts when their car went into the water. These are real events and consequences.

Regardless of whether or not the stories are real, the risk assessment must take into account both the probability of the event taking place and the consequences of that event.

The stories of people dying because of seat belts trapping them in a situation where they had to escape are many. But the analysis has to take into account two different events. The first is, “My car goes into the water and my seat belt does not release.” The probability of this happening is very low but the consequence is high. Total risk, LOW.

On the other hand, the probability of getting into an accident is relatively high. The probability of being injured in an accident if you are NOT wearing your seat belt is even higher. Therefore the risk from wearing your seat belt is much lower than the risk from NOT wearing your seat belt.

Part of the problem with dead baby stories is that sometimes we don’t recognize them as dead baby stories. Sometimes the stories are presented in the news as a “did you know?” with lots of facts about how bad the consequences are. Or how awful the company is for letting this consequence happen.

Sometimes the information is presented in such a way that we want to believe, and our risk assessment goes out the window. BPA might be an example of this. There is some research that shows this chemical might leach into the contents and this leaching might cause issues. But the people that are pushing this research just happen to have been hired by a company which was selling BPA free bottles . . . before BPA was an issue.

So is this a dead baby story being used to sell a product or is it good research that was brought to view by a company who just happens to represent a client that sells BPA free items? Makes you wonder.

Here’s an example from a few years ago. IUDs are one of the safest, most effective forms of birth control available. They have one of the lowest failure rates and one of the lowest side effect rates of any birth control method. For a long time, they were considered dangerous to use and were often ignored in the U.S. However, that is now changing (*Note from Allyson circa 2026: the links Chris had here are long gone, and the info is a decade out of date. Where articles are gone, I’ve just removed the links. Where they still exist, I’ve left them in. Remember these are from 2012.*)

Because the IUD has to be inserted and removed by a medical professional, a woman will not “forget” it. It is not going to have “pinprick” failures. A woman won’t accidental stop taking her birth control pills. An IUD just works.

I’ve had multiple doctors tell me these facts and my research supports their opinions. (Personal contact with multiple obgyns – while the sample size is not large, having all report the same thing leads me to believe that these facts are true).

But then the dead baby stories started. They are based on fact. They really did happen. The Dalkon Shield had a design flaw. The flaw led to Pelvic Inflammatory Disease (PID). PID could cause scaring and adhesions which in turn lead to significant reproductive health issues.

Under the risk assessment, we have a consequence, “PID,” and a probability. Given that there were millions of women using IUDs (160,000,000+ in 2002) but there were only 4,000,000 Dalkon Shields used. Math gives us a 2.5% chance of a woman having a Dalkon Shield if she choose to get an IUD. Of those, only 8% had issues, meaning that the probability of a negative outcome was 0.2%

Looking at the statistics for other birth control methods it is easy to see higher failure rates. But the stories were so horrible of some women being unable to have children after using “an IUD,” or of birth defects “caused” by “a IUD,” that many women stopped choosing IUDs as a form of birth control.

This example of a dead baby story shows a consequence with a horrible outcome (sterilization, birth defects) but a very low probability of occurrence, led women to chose a path with bad outcomes (getting pregnant, headaches, dizziness, spotting, decreased libido, mood swings, interactions with other medications and health conditions) with a much higher probability of one or more of these negative consequences.

I apologize for not having all the citations for this digression. Please feel free to use Google to double-check my information.

Other examples are the outlawing of DDT. There was a very small probability of health issues from DDT. But DDT controlled the mosquitoes which carried a wide range of diseases that killed many more people than DDT ever harmed. In fact there is some research which says outlawing DDT is one of the reasons for such serious health issues in third world countries. Just look at the advertisements asking for netting to protect people from mosquitoes.

Still another example is our airport security procedure. The facts say that the TSA is not preventing terrorists or others from getting weapons on aircraft. Note the “shoe bomber”, “underwear bomber”, and “toner cartridges” were all discovered or stopped by people other than the TSA. The hope that they might just stop one bad guy is worth it to the majority of people, and so they give up vast amounts of personal liberty in exchange for appearance personal protection.

To put a little perspective on dead baby stories affecting our choices, there are 43,600 injuries per year of just children in the bathroom or bath tub and around 140,000 per year over all vs. 165,000 ladder related falls. Yet ladders have all sorts of warnings on them and everybody talks about how dangerous they are. There are even rules that say that people have to use “fall arresting” gear when on ladders, yet almost as many people are hurt in bathroom related accidents every year.

Risk assessment requires separating the probability of an event, from the actions taken in response to that event, from the consequences of those actions in the face of the event happening or not happening. When these parts are not separated it becomes almost impossible to create a good risk assessment.

Just because there is a consequence that is horrific does not mean that avoiding that action is the correct path to choose.

How Event Probability and Consequences Affect the Risk

Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and the consequences of that event taking place in the face of preventative actions. The higher the probability of an event taking place, the higher the risk of from the event, and the higher the consequence from the event, the higher the risk.

When we are doing a risk assessment we are looking at actions we can take prior to the event in order to modify the total risk involved.

To better understand the interrelationship between probability and consequences in determining total risk, we are going to use a simple example of placing a bet. There are only two actions to be considered.

For the purposes of this example we are going to use an event of a coin toss. The coin and toss are “fair” which is to say the coin will land heads up 50% of the time.

Event: The coin will land heads up.

The action will be “placing a bet” on the outcome of the event. In other words we are betting on the coin landing heads up. The second action is “do nothing.”

The consequence is the loss of the amount bet.

Flipping A Fair Coin
Action	Event Happens	Event Does Not Happen
Do Nothing	Nothing	Nothing
Place a Bet	Win Amount of Bet	Lose Amount of Bet

From the table we can see that there are four potential consequences: two neutral, one good, one bad. If we choose not to bet, nothing bad will happen but nothing good will happen either.

If we set the amount of the bet low, say $1, then we can set a “value” to the consequence, “acceptable” and “unacceptable”. If the bet value is low enough then all four outcomes are “acceptable”.

If we raise the amount of the bet to $20, then things start to change. Now we have three results which are acceptable and one that is “unacceptable”. With only two choices we can’t tell how “unacceptable” the bad result is. What we do know is as the size of the bet increases the level of “unacceptable” becomes higher.

Using a scale from 0 to 10 with 0 being totally unacceptable and 10 being acceptable, anything less than 10 is unacceptable to some extent. So to use this in our example, if we are betting $1 then the consequence of losing the bet has a value of 9. On the other hand if we are betting our mortgage payment, the consequence of losing might be a 4. If we were betting our life it is likely that it will have a value of 0 or 1. (For most people the thought of losing the life of a loved one is a 0 while the loss of their own life is about a 1).

We can actually see how people are affected by risk assessments when we watch the same group of people play poker for cash and when they play for tokens with no physical value. People that have nothing to lose (the tokens don’t have value) will bet heavier and on poorer hands than when they are using real cash.

One thing that has to be taken into consideration when these types of risk are calculated is the value assigned to each consequence is very personal. A person with a “fun” budget of a few thousand dollars will assign a consequence value to a $100 bet much differently than a person with a fun budget of only $500.

At this point you should be able to look at our simple example and see how the risk changes based on the consequences. But we can also modify the risk by modifying the probability of an event.

We modify the probability of an event by learning more about an event or by changing the circumstances in which the event might take place.

Taking an example of rock climbing, the probability of a “fall” happening is reduced by increasing the experience of the climber. We can also reduce the probability by changing equipment or conditions in which the climb is taking place.

Here is an example of a set of risk analyses that was performed in the mid 1980s. They bet wrong.

The event will be: A catastrophic failure with loss of lives because of a gasket failure. The probability of gasket failure is set at 0.1% when the temperature is above 32°F. We know the failure rate is higher if the temperature is lower but we don’t know what the actual failure rate will be.

The actions we can take are: Refuse to perform the mission if the temperature is below 32°F. Test to determine the failure rate below 32°F. Perform the mission if the temperature is above 0°F. (The entity in charge had already decided that launch at sub-zero temperatures was unacceptable.)

Catastrophic Failure Of Seal
Action	Event Happens	Event Does Not Happen
Do Nothing	People die, equipment lost, huge PR issue	Procedure continues as is
Refuse Mission	Event can not happen	PR issues, loss of revenue, loss of face, loss of management bonuses
Perform Extra Tests	Same As Do Nothing	Same as Do Nothing

In this case we can see that one of these actions does not actually affect the risk analysis. So why include it? The answer becomes that performing the test gives us a better understanding of the probabilities of the event. Given a better probability, we can make better decisions.

This analysis was actually done for NASA. The actual event was hidden. The event that should have been analyzed was, “Is the probability of seal failure significantly higher at 32°F such that our risk analysis for a mission go decision should be modified?”

Do Tests show different probabilities?
Action	Event Happens	Event Does Not Happen
Do Nothing	Same Probability feed to Primary analysis.	Same probability feed to Primary analysis.
Test Performed	High cost of test, loss of face, potential delay in missions, new better probabilities leading to more mission delays	High cost of test, loss of face, potential delay in mission

In the analysis done it was decided that the cost of doing the testing to determine the probability of failure at low temperatures was prohibitive. Therefore the testing was not done. Therefore the risk assessment stated the same which was it was safe to launch the space shuttle when the temperature was at freezing the night before. Therefore the launch did take place. During the launch a gasket (O-Ring) failed leading to the catastrophic failure of the mission including loss of all lives aboard and the loss of the vehicle as well.

Please note an important aspect of risk analysis is having good information on consequences and probabilities. If you are working from bad data then your assessment is likely to be bad as well.

So far we’ve been modifying the consequences to show how that changes the risk assessment. We can also change the probability of an event taking place in order to increase or decrease the risk involved.

If the probability is modified, the risk is modified. Consider the standard movie leap (see The Day After Tomorrow) where our hero starts to run and then leaps over a chasm, narrowly avoiding falling to his certain death. Yeah, most of the time the leaps are long enough to make an Olympic gold medalist envious, but let’s ignore that for the moment.

The consequence of the leap succeeding changes the risk. If we KNOW the probability of making the leap is 100% then there is nearly no risk. If on the other hand we know there is almost no chance of the hero making the leap then the risk is astronomical.

The movie Executive Decision is an example of the movie maker playing with the audience by presenting the standard, “It would take a super human effort to survive this,” with the audience knowing the hero will survive because he does have top billing and it is very early in the film. Then the hero doesn’t make it. The hero dies. Oh my, what is this movie about now?

The movie maker has taken our innate sense of risk assessment and told us, “yeah, this is impossible. You and I both know it is impossible but the hero can always do the impossible.” In other words the real world probability is near 0% but in the movie world the probability of succeeding has always been 100% so the perceived risk is low. Then the movie maker breaks the rules: “Fooled you! I used real world probabilities. Now you can’t assume that movie probabilities are in effect for this movie.”

So rather than the three probabilities we’ve looked at so far, nearly 100%, 50% and nearly 0%, we can have probabilities anywhere in between. As the probabilities change the risk also changes.

Where you might be willing to “bet on the event” if the probability is “fair” and the consequences are “acceptable” you might decide the odds are against you too much and refuse to bet.

If you know that you are going to lose 100% of the time then it is highly unlikely you will place the bet. On the other hand people will bet on losing odds every single day of the week, knowing the odds are against them.

Would you bet $2 when the odds are 1.8% of winning even $4? Those are pretty bad odds. They say for every $110 you bet you will win $4. But you could do better, you could win $7 but the probability is 0.14% or you’d have to spend $1412 to make $7. Note, math-wise there is a point before you get to the $1412 where you are likely to win something but it is still fairly high and much higher than $7.

But we can really entice you! If you are willing to bet $2 with a probability of 0.013%, I’ll pay you $200. Does that sound like good odds? Most people can look at that and see there is a very low chance of winning the $200 before you’ve spent well over $200.

And here is the kicker, I’ll give you a 0.00002% chance of winning a million dollars or more! And all you have to do is give me your $2. Just remember, you can’t win if you don’t play.

The preceding odds are for “Power Ball Lotto”.

In general, in a “game of luck” the “house” attempts to hide the fact that the game is rigged so over time the house will take in more money than they pay out. The game is not “fair”. The fact that it is not fair is hidden in the payouts. As an example US roulette double zero wheels have a house advantage of 5.26%. Put another way for every $100 bet at roulette the house takes $5.26.

The player doesn’t see that 5.26% house edge, instead they see a pay out of $35 for a dollar bet. If they only bet a single number a 100 times they’ll win big! Unfortunately the house will still take $5.26 of that hundred. The probability of winning is 2.63% the pay out is 35 to 1. 100*35*0.0263=$92.05. The reason this is not exactly $94.74 is because when you win you get your original bet back.

I once read: Lotteries are taxes on people that don’t understand math. What they are actually saying is that people do the risk assessment and are willing to lose $2 or $5 or what ever it is they bet per week.

As the probability changes so does the risk. Often times the actual risk is hidden by the feeling of potential profit. Risk assessment requires looking at both the probability and the consequences. Evaluating either in isolation can lead to serious errors in assessment.

Cascading Consequences

The problem with the simple risk assessment examples given is they do not take into account how a consequence could cascade.

Consider a person placing a $100 bet in order to win $1000. The odds are not good but if he wins then he can pay off his credit card. He has the $100 in his pocket. The consequence is he will lose the $100.

The cascading consequence could be he no longer has enough money to make his mortgage payment. Now instead of being behind on his credit card he is also going to be behind on his mortgage. This happens all the time in casinos. As a matter of fact casinos often are designed to make it easy for a gambler to bet more than they can really acceptably lose.

Cascading consequences occur when the first consequence causes some other consequence, which in turn causes more consequences.

Consider the power outage scenario. Losing power in our household is no big deal. Wood heat and propane grill gives us heat, food and water. But there are bad things that go along with extended loss of power. The largest is that our freezer will start to warm and we might lose some food.

On the other hand if you are on an O₂ generator and the power fails there is no more Oxygen being generated. You need to get the power on or have a secondary source of oxygen.

We do have long power outages where I live. I had a telecommute job. The job required me to be at my desk at 0800 and be available through 1700 to take customer calls and to provide additional technical support to my team. For most people a power outage is not a huge thing. For me it could mean my job.

My risk assessment said that being with out internet access which included my phone service was an unacceptable risk. So we ended up rewiring parts of the house and installing a T1 (type of high speed internet connection). This meant that if there was a power failure in the area we could bring up the computers and the internet with a whole house generator.

But there was another thing that happened. Installing a T1 connection means that the phone company treats a “down connection” exactly the same as if an entire town lost phone service. This means that while my Comcast neighbors were still waiting for service to come back up we’d been up and running for two days. Mean time before repair was about 2 hours.

Of course there was a cost for all of this. We had to invest in the time to rewire the house and we had to pay a premium price for our T1 connection.

In this case the cascading consequence was that I might lose my job if we lost power. And that would be because we lost computers and internet.

Why Are People Concerned About Major Catastrophes?

Or: Why are people worried about what to do after the end of the world as we know it? Simple, because their risk assessment says that it is OK and reasonable to plan for it.

When doing a risk assessment we often find actions which are not bad, which reduce the likelihood of the event or which would mitigate the event if it takes place. By choosing to do the action we have an investment in resources (time and money) but it causes no harm and might prevent a bad consequence.

My daughter shows signs of dyslexia. My wife is a reading specialist. She thinks there is a 90% probability that my daughter has dyslexia. But we do not have a diagnosis of dyslexia.

Because of her training my wife does not want to flatly say my daughter is dyslexic. So we did the risk assessment.

Daughter might have dyslexia (90%)
Action	Event is True	Event is false
Do nothing	Daughter is slow to read, has frustration reading, will have spelling issues.	Nothing
Teach her as if she has dyslexia	Daughter is given the tools to read is not significantly slowed, does not become frustrated, will have coping methods in place for spelling.	Daughter will learn new reading tools, will likely read better and faster, will spell better

When we look at the risk assessment we have one negative consequence which is doing nothing and she is dyslexic. We have one neutral consequence and two positive consequences. Both positive consequences are the result of taking action. Therefore since there is no downside to taking the action we proceed by taking the action.

It does not matter if she does or does not have dyslexia because in either case taking action will cause no harm and will help regardless.

At the end of October 2012 there was a large hurricane which hit the north east states of the U.S. For some people it was a big deal. For others it was “no big deal.” Why the difference?

My adult daughter in Maryland was asking me as the storm was coming ashore if she should stay where she was or evacuate? She was not prepared for either option.

For us, we stopped by the local store to fill up the spare propane tank and get an extra couple of gallons of fuel for the generator. My lady stopped at the store on her way home to pick up eggs.

It was no big deal. We have been preparing for a bad situation. As such this situation was just a minor test of the plans.

A friend of mine has lost her job a couple of times. One time it was for over six months. She was getting some unemployment but not enough to pay all her bills. She paid her bills with that money but they lived on the food she had put away for an emergency.

My parents gave me a hard time a couple of months ago about thinking and planing for major events. My father’s statement was something along the lines of “When we go shopping we always do a check of our pantry first. If we are down to a couple of cans of something then we’ll pick it up but it doesn’t pay to buy more than you are going to need.”

My parents have been preparing all their lives! They are so good at it that they don’t even think about it. They have a few months of food at hand. They might not be happy about the choices but they won’t go hungry if they get snowed in. Their toilet paper supply won’t be exhausted if the snow keeps them home for a week. This is just the way they grew up.

Summary

Risk assessment allows us to make good decisions based on facts and logic, not emotion. These sorts of decisions might hurt people’s feelings but are unlikely to get people harmed or killed.

Risk assessment is a process. It begins with identifying an event. Once an event is identified a set of actions are analyzed by determining the consequences of the event happening or not happening based on the action.

Each consequence or set of consequences for an event action intersection is given an acceptability level. The event is given a probability of happening. The risk of each intersection is the combination of the probability of the event happening or not happening and the acceptability of the consequence.

Consequences have to be evaluated at both the first level and as a sequence of cascading events. (For lack of a nail the shoe was lost, for lack of a shoe the horse was lost, for lack of…)

At times the correct response to a risk assessment is, “We have to have a better determination of the actual probabilities and conditions in which those probabilities hold true.”

It is possible and actually probable that a single action can be used for multiple events. While the worst of those events might never take place, the action you choose to perform in case of that event might very well be the correct action for a multitude of other events whose combined probability is very high.

For a very long time, I have believed that the full and complete answer to the rape problem is to arm every woman, or at least every woman we can convince to be armed and properly trained. Will a few men get shot? Yes. They will get shot, and they will die. Not all of them will be guilty of sexual assault, but regardless, the message would get out.

See, rapists are not smart, usually. They are opportunistic. They’re not motivated by sex, either. They’re motivated by power. Rape is not a sexual assault, it’s a mental one. A ridiculously large number of them are actually cowed by women, hence the need to overpower them and do bad things to them.

The concern about being shot and killed by women would stop those types of rapists.

It wouldn’t stop the crafty ones, nor the kiddy diddlers, but there isn’t much we can do in advance about those.

But yes, for the “normal” rapists, the “everyday” rapists, the rape whistle shown above would be just fine, along with smaller versions.

What it would not help with are the ones who are in it for other reasons than power. It wouldn’t help at all with the few but real number of women who cry rape when it isn’t. And boy, do I have a problem with those women.

I am afraid that this current “Jane Doe” is one of those women. I’m afraid she’s like Mattress Girl.

When I went to evaluate the coverage of the Cornell case, I asked Grok to get me JUST the facts. No news outlets, no media reports. I just wanted the various documents available to the public, that state the facts as presented. And frankly, there really aren’t all that many.

What we do know:

She went to a frat party, was already drunk and likely high when she arrived. This is by her own admission, as well as the observation of many witnesses on record. She then proceeded to agree to a threesome with two men, take ketamine in a large dose, and have sexual relations with those two men for an undetermined amount of time. After that, the original two men left, and other men came in.

At least some of the men in the frat put up an “advert” of sorts, telling their frat brothers that there was a willing woman upstairs. These other men were ones who read the “advert” and joined in what they thought was the fun. Per their statements, they found a woman who was lucid enough to ask them to stop a couple of times while she went and did things, and a couple of times when other men in the room were so drunk they were sick and she was checking on them. They stopped when she asked them to stop. Her own statement to the police, the original one, included this information.

Now, the District Attorney went over all the information in the case, and came to the conclusion that there was no way to win a case where the woman states that for the majority (and maybe all) of the time, she consented to what was going on. That’s just not rape, in anyone’s books.

I am strongly of the opinion that every woman deserves to have at least one person who stands by her, steadfastly believing everything she says. No, I take that back. Every person who says they are a rape victim deserves it, not just women. Even when the facts seem wrong. Even when it sounds like she might be lying or blowing things up. It’s hard enough to report this kind of thing. Having one person who’s your designated *believer* really does help. Even if it ends up that the person wasn’t telling the truth, the other people around them known that should they end up in a bad place, THEY would have someone to believe them.

I am often that person, for a variety of reasons. I’m okay with that. I will hold hands, encourage proper reporting, stand with a woman while she has a rape kit done (and let me tell you, that’s a whole other level of degradation, even if it’s entirely necessary). Someone has to be with her (or him), and I am happy to be that person.

But none of that means that I give up my ability to have independent thoughts. I have stood beside someone who I personally thought was lying. Turns out I was wrong; I was very glad I kept that thought inside my head. Regardless, she needed someone standing by her, and I gave her that. Had she gone to court and lost, had he not confessed when pressed by the police and shown all the evidence as it piled up, I would have asked her eventually if she was sure. It’s a shit question to ask someone, but sometimes it has to be asked. I don’t mind being that person, either.

I think someone needs to take Jane Doe aside, hold her hand, and ask her quietly if this really happened. Because her early statements don’t match her later ones. If there’s a reason for that (and there is ONE thing… she reported rape, and it was not written into her report that way, so that was a wrong-doing on the part of the police), then let me know. Let us know. I’m all for supporting rape victims… but I do so with the understanding that they will work toward being survivors, not victims perpetually. I am entirely wary of women who seem to want to stay the victim.

If Jane Doe had been carrying, I suspect we’d know if she’d been raped. If she had been, one or more of the perpetrators would be dead. Maybe not the first two guys, who she absolutely consented to be with (and later thanked for the fun, though requested not to invite the whole frat next time, which implies a lot). It takes a lot to just out and shoot someone who isn’t sexually assaulting you. Most women who want attention from this kind of thing would never shoot their target, because they wouldn’t get the sympathy and love that they’re aiming for. It’s not a perfect answer, but at least it’s an answer… right?

Sigh…

Someone posted this on the internet. Because someone posted this on the internet, someone else got upset. Why, you may ask, did someone get upset over having the above pointed out?

Well, one person pointed out that they were upset they were alive, that they were homeless, didn’t have a bed, and were hungry. Being told to be grateful for things they didn’t have was wrong.

Another person said that the act of stating, “Be grateful,” is an order, and that in so ordering someone to be grateful, you may as well add “or else” to the end. It’s not a statement of joy, but a threat.

Another said it’s a performance piece designed to anger people so they lash out.

I can’t make this shit up. I can’t EVEN.

If you are reading this, you are alive. Even if you feel like total shit (and if you do, PLEASE reach out, because I’d rather spend hours listening to you talk about your bad day than minutes reading a eulogy at your funeral), you’re alive. You may not have a home, but I’m guessing if you’re reading this then you do. There aren’t a lot of people hanging out in political discussion groups on Facebook or the internet in general who are homeless. But even then… a tent, a car, a van, even a box can be a home if you want or need it to be. I’ve lived in a lot of odd places, and almost all of them were “home” even if only for a short while.

If you’re sleeping, you have a bed. It might not be a good bed, but you have one. Your bed might be made of a park bench, the backseat of a car, or a sleeping bag on the ground, but it’s still a bed. I’d hazard to guess pretty much no one reading this is living hard on the streets, though. That means you have a mattress, with sheets and probably a box spring, pillows, maybe a heating blanket, definitely warm blankets. You have a bed.

You have food. And I’m going to be blunt on this – if you don’t have food, that’s on you. There are so many food banks, church dinners, community soup kitchens, and people just outright offering to feed folks that if you’re going without, it’s your own fault. There, I said it. I’m sure that makes me a horrible person, but I’m only speaking the truth. I think what most people mean when they say they have no food, is that they have no food THEY LIKE, and that is not the same thing. At all. You have food.

Me, I am alive. I’m in a better place (physically, emotionally, mentally) than I have ever been before. I relish being alive, even in stressful moments. I’m alive, and I’m bloody grateful that I am.

I have a home. I actually have several homes, because I’m that blessed. I have my home with my family. I have my home with my boyfriend. I have homes with friends, who’ve made it clear I can show up at any moment, any time of day or night, and there will be all of the other things I need. I am so damn grateful to have a home, and not just a house. My heart lives in my home.

I have a bed. I love my bed. I even got to pick the mattress for this bed, which was awesome. I have a cot, too, my “bed while camping,” and I love it as well. I love all my warm blankies, my heating blanket, my pillows that squish just right. I’m so grateful to have a bed that allows me to get amazing rest and wonderful cuddles. And other stuff. Heh…

I have food. I may not have filet mignon, but I have chicken and ground beef. Heck, in a time of need, I know how to get squirrel and deer and turkey. I have a pantry full of rice, beans, canned meats, pasta. I know how to make bread and have both flour and grains to make flour. I have FOOD, so much food. I’ve spent a lot of time saving up that food. I prepare for times when we don’t have a lot, because that always happens. When it does, it doesn’t slow me down. It just changes some of my recipes. And that’s okay. I’m grateful for the ability to think ahead and plan in advance, and I’m grateful for the food I feed my family.

I am grateful. I have all of the above, plus friends, extended family, neighbors… Things might not go exactly as I want them to, but that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. I am a blessed person, grateful for all that I have.

This was written by Chris on Oct. 28, 2012.

Starting A Fire

A Story

Quick story. The other day I wanted to test my shelter skills. It was dark and raining. It had been raining all day long so everything outside was soaked. My goal was to make a fire from my EDC (everyday carry). The tools I actually decided to use were:

• Fire steel
• pocket knife
• Poncho
• Flashlight

I put on my poncho, grabbed my flashlight and headed out. My original intention was to find a standing tree to take tinder from but the fact that my night vision had not recovered made me change my plans. I walked in to the woods near our house and made my way in about 30 yards. There I spotted a fallen birch limb about 8 inches in diameter. Most of the bark was missing but some was still attached.

I tested to see if the attached part was still firmly attached and once I found it was, this is where I started. I knelt down with the front of the poncho under my knee and stripped some of the bark off the log. As soon as a piece was stripped it went under the poncho out of the rain and sat on the poncho in front of my knee keeping it dry.

Once I had a fair bit of the bark, I collected it all by feel and stood up. I walked to the nearest pine tree and broke off some dead wood from the tree, again collecting it under the poncho. By this time I had my hands full so I found a place where I wanted to make the actual fire. If I had intended for the fire to last I would have created a bit more shelter but this was a test of starting a
fire more than keeping it going.

Once I had cleared a small area I knelt down over it and pulled my head into the poncho. I was now inside a shelter. One piece of bark went down onto the ground with the dry inside up and the wetter outside against the ground. This gave me a dry location to build my tinder bed. Another piece of bark was placed dry side up to take the rest of my bark.

Splitting the bark gave me access to the very dry interior of the bark. This paper thin layer was broken up into slivers that were placed into a small pile on the base plate. Once I had a small pile I sorted out my twigs and other pieces from smallest to largest,
including the extra bark.

Once everything was in place I got out my fire steel and got my knife back out. A half dozen attempts and finally a spark caught. The bark pile got a good clean flame. I slowly fed it some more until it was established. At this point I added my twigs. It was
getting a bit warm under the poncho but I wasn’t ready to let the rain fall.

A few moments later I had a good flame with the starter twigs catching. At this point I just stood up using my arms to hold the
poncho out to provide shelter for my fire. If need be I could have built the fire larger. If the fire had been sheltered it would have
kept right on going as it was fed. As it was, I considered it a successful test and carefully put out the fire. Putting my head back in the hood I watched for another five minutes to make sure there were no embers still live and headed on home.

This is one of those things that too many people aren’t “getting” lately.

I do a lot of reenactment. I run into people who will happily tell me that the only “approved fabric” for dresses and waistcoats of colonial New England are (insert fabric choices here). They’ll explain there are 3 acceptable patterns, and no variations may ever be made because it’s not historically correct.

This is absolute poppycock. It’s bullshit with extra fiber. At no point in history have women EVER been content with five fabric choices and 3 acceptable dress patterns. Never. Leaving aside the absurdity of even saying that, it points to a much greater problem… that the people saying it actually believe it.

There is this pervasive outlook among the new “historians” (I use the term quite loosely) today that if you don’t have an extant piece showing the exact (whatever), then it didn’t exist. You can’t prove it, so you can’t say it existed.

That is not how history works. I file that under the scientists and archaeologists who tell me that the little stone carved fat ladies were all goddesses. I’m sure some might have been, but I’m equally sure that some of it was porn, because men are about porn the way women are about dress fabrics.

As a member of a few historical societies, I’ve run into people doing experiential archaeology. This means they are taking the items that were available at the time, and using them in the way we either know they were used or posit they were used, to see if the end result matches what we think we know. The end result of many of these experiments is that we change our views. At one time, we thought dinosaurs were lizards, and now we know they were often bird-like. At one time, we thought medieval clothing was all muddy colored and dark, mostly blacks and browns. Now we know that’s so wrong as to be comical, and that medieval clothing was riotously colorful, loud, and often clashing. It took people DOING in order to figure out how we got to the end point… or to figure out that the end point we thought was there, was not.

I am an amateur historian. I do experiential historical cooking. This means that I play with recipes from various time periods (medieval, Viking, colonial American, etc), and I try to figure out what they were doing. It isn’t always obvious. Redacting a recipe (taking it from “Hew ye thee bef into gobbettes” to “dice your beef into even sized pieces about a half inch in size) includes some science, some art, and a lot of translation. You not only have to know about recipes and cooking in general, you have to know about THAT recipe IN CONTEXT. If a medieval recipe asks for an exotic ingredient, it may mean a number of things, and you have to figure out which one is correct (is it a new ingredient brought by an adventurer? did it arrive on the spice trail? is it a modern recipe wrongly identified as medieval? etc). Nothing about it is easy, and not one part of it can be done without engaging in the actual DOING.

There are a couple of recipes I’ve done that really surprised me. The first is “cucumber mandrang,” which is basically a sort of dilly relish that was eaten as a salad or side during the early part of the 18th century. It contains some fun ingredients, including cayenne pepper, which surprised me. It must have just arrived, because we have no earlier mentions of it as far north as New England. How exciting! The second is “chicken pudding,” which is a left-over chicken quiche, for all intents and purposes. It’s tasty and odd, and a great way to use up leftovers and extra eggs in the spring.

The mandrang surprised me because of the spicing. It’s made with port or sherry, “chayne” (their word for cayenne), and a few other spices, mixed in with finely diced cucumber. It’s refreshing and tasty, and one of the few raw recipes I’ve run across from that early. It’s unusual and delicious, and it has a strong resemblance to crock pickles or refrigerator pickles.

The chicken pudding got me because it looks so odd, has a different name, and yet comes out looking so familiar. It tastes great, though slightly different than you think it will when you see it.

I could never have learned any of the stuff I did without actually trying to make these things. Going by books alone, neither of the recipes I’ve mentioned were all that odd. It was the doing that brought out how amazing they are. I learned so much more by actively doing!

We need to encourage kids in school to begin doing. There are too many who just regurgitate information, because that’s what they’re taught. Spit out test answers on demand, and never learn a thing, and never DO. We need them doing… experiencing… experimenting… and growing.

We need that, too. We need to stop repeating our mistakes.

I have long believed as Heinlein says above, through Lazarus Long. If I had managed to get my life together, I would currently be living off grid where no one could find me. I do not like a society that inspects me when it isn’t required.

And there’s the rub. Voting requires ID to ensure it’s the folks who should be voting who are doing so. And while I *personally* do not have an issue with people coming to the States for a better life, if they assimilate, there are issues with open borders admitting people who have no interest at all in assimilating. We’ve reached a point where the number of people coming in is going to overwhelm our systems, and that means we need to close the doors.

Me personally? I think we should just close the doors. Period. If you’re in, you’re in. If you’re a violent criminal, we’ll find you, prosecute you, and lock you up according to our laws (or give you the choice to self-deport, while informing authorities at the other end of your choice). If your only crime is being here, well, we’ll deal. If you’ve stayed under the radar because you’re living AS an American, I honestly, truly don’t care. You’re not the problem.

America is currently experiencing a downtrend in birth rates. We are losing more people to death than we are replacing them with. There are a number of folks who are upset about that, but I am not one of them. While I’ve no interest in depopulating the country entirely, having a few less million would mean we could feed, house, clothe, and educate the ones who ARE here.

Are there issues with that? Yep. Lots of them, especially with the government in the state it currently is.

This is elder abuse. I called the misuse of Biden as elder abuse. How in the world am I supposed to not say that about Mitch? He’s a frickin’ zombie, guys. And he isn’t the only one.

We have Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa): 92, Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.): 84, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.): 82, Jim Risch (R-Idaho): 81, Angus King (I-Maine): 82 in Congress. We have (R-Ky.): 88 (also the dean of the House), Maxine Waters (D-Calif.): 86, Steny Hoyer (D-Md.): 85, James Clyburn (D-S.C.): 84, and Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.): 84 in the House. And those are just “the oldest.” There are dozens more who are almost as old.

Why are we pushing the nanny state with all the flock cameras and other devices for watching the citizenry? We’re saying it’s because of illegal aliens, but that’s not what’s being used to catch them. Instead, we’re getting the majority of our illegal aliens out via local law enforcement (fingerprinting at jails goes back to AFIS and other systems, which in turn feed to the Feds, who come pick them up safely at lockup), traffic stops, and other passive means. It’s not through mass surveillance. That’s for you and me, guys.

As people get older, they become aware of their mortality. The more fragile they feel, the more they want to be protected. Hence the cameras. Just in case ol’ Mitch wanders off. Or Maxine takes a cab somewhere and forgets her phone number.

We need to scale back and/or get rid of surveillance, because it affects lawful citizens as much OR MORE than criminals, and lawful citizens don’t need watching, thank you very much. That whole 4th amendment thing. We need to enact term limits and let some younger people in our government. Right now, the Boomers and older are in control and frankly they aren’t functional enough to do the job well. Gen X might be the right age, but we’re just fucking done with everyone’s shit and want you off our lawn. So fine, stick some younger ones in. While not impossible, I doubt they’d cock it up any worse than it currently is.

This past weekend was the timeline event at the Fort at No. 4. We invite reenactors from whatever other time periods who’d like to be there, and we assemble. People who are around the Fort’s era (1700s) are inside the fort, and everyone else is outside. Or at least that’s how it’s supposed to be.

See, it rained this weekend. I will conceded that if you lived on the coast, this was a major thing. But over on the Vermont border, up north? No, thank you. This was a non-event storm. It rained, folks. It was just normal autumn rain. But a few of our groups decided they couldn’t make it, which made me sad. I am trying to be understanding, but I’m grumpy. Ah well.

I chose to make one dish for each of the time periods that were (supposed to be) at the event. So I had tons of food planned out, and I did not make all of it. I ran out of steam about 4pm on Saturday, after a LONG day of cooking over the fire. Still, we had much MUCH more food than people to eat it, and everyone waddled off happily afterward.

It was a fairly epic feast, I must say. I did a bunch of medieval, WWII British home guard, and 18th century recipes, and my friends L & J did a bunch of Asian foods for the Vietnam and Korean wars. The only complaint (and I heard it from more than one person) was that there were so many options that even if you only took a spoonful of each thing, you got too full and couldn’t eat everything. LOL…

It was a thoroughly exhausting weekend, but my bread turned out gorgeous, the chicken puddings were spot on, and my apple crisp was pretty tasty! All in all, it was truly worth it. I just wish we’d had more people there. I think we ended up with about 30 or 35 people, all told. But next year we’ll do better!

My summer season is just about over. I have three more events: Jaffrey Fall Fest, Mayflower Days (a modern market that I’m doing a little 18th century corner in), and the Hammond Castle Ren Faire. All of these will be fun! After that, I’ll be transitioning into craft fair season, which does not involve tents, camping gear, or any of the cooking stuff. It’s mostly just sitting at tables, dressed up, talking to folks. Whew. So much easier.

In the background, Chris has been dressing up and interpreting, as well. He’s pretty amazing. 🙂

Keep That Coffee Hot by Scatman Crothers.

This is another song from the Fallout series on Prime. I adore most of the songs they play, but this one really struck the right tone for today. I needed my extra coffee, but I got it all done!