How good is your ability to read tea leaves? Watching SCOTUS

John of www.GunsSaveLife.com was kind enough to post a link back to us and to quote The Game is On! SCOTUS update

He expressed a bit of skepticism.

John is skeptical because nobody knows what is going to happen in Supreme Court conferences.
It is all “reading the tea leaves”.

The black box which is Supreme Court conferences has visible inputs. Status of the case, briefings on the case, circuit split, time after the last Supreme Court opinion on the subject and a few others.

For output, we have “Denied”, “Denied with statement”, “Granted”, “relisted” and “rescheduled”.

Why the justices decide on which output is a guess. Some people are good at those guesses. Mark Smith has a good record. I don’t have a record to stand on. We know historically that “rescheduling” happens when the justices want to see multiple cases at the same time. We know that under Roberts, cases that are relisted are almost always granted cert. and those that are not have some procedural issue with them, not merits issues.

Cases that are denied Cert generally have nothing said about them. Think of it as spending 30 minutes trying to convince your parents to do something, and at the end of that they say “no”. That’s how most denial of cert goes. Nobody cares when cert is granted. It is going to happen.

When one or more justices feels strongly that cert should have been granted, they will write a statement to go along with the order list. Occasionally, a justice will write a statement explaining to the petitioner why cert was denied so that they can address the issue.

We saw several statements from Justice Thomas on why they were not granting cert on Second Amendment challenges that were in an interlocutory state.