The Delusions of a Tyrant, NJ Style

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Recently, Acting Attorney General Matthew Platkin discussed New Jersey’s decrease in gun violence and pointed to our state’s strict gun laws as one of the main reasons for this decline. According to Platkin, shootings dropped 25% statewide in 2022. This is a monumental accomplishment; hundreds of people across the state of New Jersey were safe from senseless gun violence last year and it is due in large part to our commonsense gun laws that have been proven to work.
— NJ gun laws: We know strict concealed carry works. This is why | — Courier Post By Louis Cappelli Jr.

Matt is out there fighting for the safety of the people of New Jersey. You know this because Louis tells you so. But it is fun to look some of the fun things he has to say Here in New Jersey, we have the fourth-strongest gun laws in the country. We also have the third-lowest rate of firearm deaths in the country and the lowest rate of firearm ownership with just 8.9% of New Jersey households reporting to own firearms. Id.

Is he proud his state has some of the worse gun right infringements in the country. He is proud of the infringements in the concealed carry permitting. He is proud of the infringements on individuals making firearms. He is proud of the infringements on people right to purchase firearms without permission. He is proud of being a tyrant.

But he is very upset that some people aren’t taking a knee to these infringements. Unfortunately, this was almost instantly challenged by gun-rights groups who claimed the law was unconstitutional because it violated the Second Amendment. id.. Yep, you read that right, they claim it was an infringement, not that it was.

And it just gets worse for him. To add insult to injury, the Supreme Court ruled in June that the Constitution provides a right to carry a gun outside the home Id. How horrible it is that the Supreme Court reaffirmed in Bruen that Heller is still good law and that if it is an arm in common use it is covered by the Second Amendment and if it is even a little infringement it is too much.

So Louis doesn’t get to have Matt go to the courts and whine that his law should make people safer so it should pass constitutional muster.

But let’s take a look at some of Louis’s claims, that New Jersey is somehow special in the reduction of violent crimes. Of course he might be cherry picking to just crimes committed with firearms:

Every statistic tracked in violent crime in the FBI’s UCR shows that crime is decreasing. That might be meaningful.

How about his claim that New Jersey is getting safer than constitutional carry states?

2018 to 2019 NH had either just gon constitutional carry or was about to. The violent crime rate dropped 14.1%. MA went down 3.7% and NJ went down 0.8%. Hmmm, that doesn’t seem to match what Matt said.

Let’s take a look a murder in the states for 2019

State Population Total
murders1 		Total murders rate Total
firearms		 Handguns Rifles Shotguns Firearms
(type
unknown)		 Knives or
cutting
instruments		 Other
weapons		 Hands, fists,
feet, etc.2
Florida 21,477,737 1 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Alabama 4,903,185 4 0.08 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 0
Maine 1,344,212 20 1.49 13 6 0 3 4 2 4 1
Vermont 623,989 11 1.76 8 3 2 0 3 0 1 2
Iowa 3,155,070 58 1.84 36 21 0 0 15 8 8 6
Idaho 1,787,065 35 1.96 16 9 0 0 7 3 13 3
Minnesota 5,639,632 114 2.02 79 61 0 0 18 10 15 10
Utah 3,205,958 66 2.06 41 18 1 6 16 8 13 4
Massachusetts 6,892,503 146 2.12 86 33 0 0 53 38 14 8
South Dakota 884,659 19 2.15 7 4 1 0 2 3 6 3
Wyoming 578,759 13 2.25 9 7 0 0 2 3 0 1
Hawaii 1,415,872 32 2.26 9 5 0 0 4 7 11 5
Oregon 4,217,737 98 2.32 61 31 1 4 25 19 14 4
Nebraska 1,934,408 45 2.33 35 26 2 2 5 2 4 4
Rhode Island 1,059,361 25 2.36 10 1 0 0 9 7 6 2
New Hampshire 1,359,711 33 2.43 16 12 0 0 4 5 7 5
Montana 1,068,778 27 2.53 16 11 1 1 3 4 4 3
Washington 7,614,893 194 2.55 135 89 5 3 38 23 24 12
New York 19,453,561 550 2.83 298 255 3 5 35 119 89 44
Connecticut 3,565,287 104 2.92 65 11 1 0 53 15 17 7
New Jersey 8,882,190 262 2.95 176 118 2 1 55 45 25 16
Wisconsin 5,822,434 178 3.06 119 53 3 3 60 25 27 7
Kansas 2,913,314 93 3.19 56 37 1 0 18 12 13 12
North Dakota 762,062 26 3.41 13 5 2 1 5 5 4 4
Colorado 5,758,736 209 3.63 135 83 5 3 44 32 30 12
Indiana 6,732,219 247 3.67 185 118 3 1 63 25 29 8
West Virginia 1,792,147 72 4.02 48 23 7 2 16 6 15 3
Georgia 10,617,423 445 4.19 367 305 14 3 45 34 35 9
California 39,512,223 1679 4.25 1142 762 34 26 320 252 183 102
Pennsylvania 12,801,989 556 4.34 429 350 11 11 57 46 66 15
Ohio 11,689,100 521 4.46 382 178 13 3 188 26 88 25
Arizona 7,278,717 337 4.63 213 170 6 6 31 47 67 10
Texas 28,995,881 1379 4.76 1064 568 72 21 403 127 130 58
Nevada 3,080,156 147 4.77 94 49 5 3 37 20 23 10
North Carolina 10,488,084 516 4.92 383 224 26 8 125 52 68 13
Delaware 973,764 48 4.93 40 13 0 0 27 2 3 3
Kentucky 4,467,673 221 4.95 174 101 9 5 59 23 20 4
Virginia 8,535,519 427 5.00 323 150 15 9 149 40 49 15
Michigan 9,986,857 551 5.52 379 172 13 5 189 44 104 24
Illinois 12,671,821 771 6.08 647 564 7 4 72 70 44 10
Mississippi 2,976,149 189 6.35 153 117 4 3 29 11 23 2
Oklahoma 3,956,971 264 6.67 189 129 11 12 37 27 37 11
New Mexico 2,096,829 146 6.96 96 51 1 3 41 21 24 5
Tennessee 6,829,174 498 7.29 391 173 13 7 198 41 46 20
Arkansas 3,017,804 231 7.65 177 87 10 5 75 21 29 4
South Carolina 5,148,714 445 8.64 381 224 9 8 140 22 27 15
Maryland 6,045,680 551 9.11 460 414 3 4 39 43 34 14
Missouri 6,137,428 566 9.22 486 255 26 10 195 31 37 12
Alaska 731,545 69 9.43 44 17 1 6 20 8 5 12
Louisiana 4,648,794 522 11.23 433 200 21 3 209 24 54 11
District_of_Columbia 705,749 166 23.52 136 52 0 0 84 18 2 10

Sorry for the formatting. It’s late and I’m not going to mess with the formatting. I want to get this article out.

Looking at the Total murders rate you will see that New Jersey isn’t there with the lowest, Surprisingly that is Florida. I don’t believe that there was only one murder in Florida in 2019 but that is the problem with UCR, the reporting is sometimes very weak.

Other things that Louis does is use interesting language Just one study that shows Only one or he is just speaking about one study. I know he wants us to think that he is only talking about one study. Of course that study is from the anti-gun research group “John Hopkins[sic] Bloomberg School of Public Health” One of those places funded by an anti-gun person in a world famous medical school. So the medical school is now studying the politics of crime. Make perfect sense to a wanna-be tyrant like Bloomberg.

I’m also confused as to what a comparison to “forecasted trends” means. We predicted X but Y happened so Y is really bad. No, you did a poor job of forecasting.

If you need further proof that strict concealed carry laws work, just take our own state for example; we have incredibly strict gun laws and our average rate of firearm deaths sits at 475 per year, compared to our neighboring state of Pennsylvania where an average of 1,600 people die every year due to gun violence. And Pennsylvania’s requirements for owning firearms are vastly more relaxed than New Jersey’s so for the people who say easier access to guns increase safety, the numbers prove otherwise.
— Id.

I hope you noticed what Matt did there. He is using absolute numbers instead of rates. Of course the UCR shows the sneaky thing he did of including things other than murder in his numbers. PA 556 Murders for a rate of 4.34/100,000 while NJ is 262 for a rate of 2.95/100,000. He is right, less reported murders in New Jersey than in PA but in raw numbers and in normalized numbers.

Of course that isn’t actually meaning full. When you look at Lott’s numbers, where he accounts for different types of variables he gets very different results.

Regardless, he had fun comparing 475 to 1600.

Here is his closing:

We need to continue pushing to ban the concealed carry of firearms fully in New Jersey…
— Id.

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Comments

One response to “The Delusions of a Tyrant, NJ Style”

  1. it's just Boris Avatar
    it’s just Boris

    …and in the end none of his numbers or comparisons matter because we are talking about a constitutionally protected right. Just as having a low IQ doesn’t allow the state to prohibit you from speaking your piece in public. Nor can an income of less than $10k per month be used as an excuse to quarter troops in your home.