• I just do not get it. At least that’s what I keep saying. That isn’t as true as it used to be, but I still don’t thoroughly understand it.

    We run risk assessments all the time. Most people do a shitty job of it. They conflate probability of occurring with the amount put at risk.

    As an example, consider the following bet, “I will bet you this $10 bill at a 3:1 payout.” That means I will get back $30 if I win, and I will forfeit my $10 bet if I lose.

    If you can afford to lose $10, you might take that bet.

    Now, let’s say that you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Over the course of 8 games, you will win 2 times for $60. You will have bet $80. The house walks away with $20.

    This is how casinos make their money. It is not always this obvious, but it is the same thing.

    Now consider a second type of bet, one where you are betting $10 on the flip of a coin against $10. The odds and the payout are a match. Over an extended number of plays, you will come out even.

    Would you be willing to bet $100 on the flip of a coin? $1000? $100,000? Your life?

    This is risk assessment. It is looking at both the probability of the event taking place and the “cost” of the event.
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  • From Miguel’s substack, with permission.

    At least from the regular Venezuelans.

    At this writing, the 2024 presidential elections in Venezuela are in the can and Maduro seems to have “secured” his re-election. Protest about the fraud committed did happen, and the government was swift arresting over 1,500 so far who are slotted to go to prison ipso facto without pretty much legal niceties, plus also announced that other thousands of so members of the “Opposition” and protesters are pre-approved to be also arrested and given free “vacations.”

    So, what happened to what used to be Latin America’s most vibrant and stable Democracy? What led to Venezuela becoming just another Communist dictatorship? I am going to try to give you a short explanation and for that, let’s begin to kill misconceptions.

    Number one: In the 203 years of existence, Venezuela was a democracy (of sorts) for only 3 decades, from the 1960s to the 1990s. Before that and thereafter, the country was run by Caudillos (Strong Men) who fought, bullshitted or bullied themselves into the Presidency. Democracy was a short-lived experiment that was eventually was used by the Left to vote itself into the power they could not obtain by the traditional revolutionary methods of the 50s. Were there elections during those old times? Yes, but again, they were either vaudeville show elections except in one case where the elected President was kicked out by a revolutionary Leninist coalition who were themselves promptly removed by the Military which took over the control of the nation and kept it.

    So, the historical DNA of the country is firmly programmed to accept Caudillos and a central government directing every aspect of your life. And with that comes the sad fact that such government will implement and use whatever force and persuasion it requires to remain in power. Scaring and programming people into submission is standard operational procedure: “Violence doesn’t solve anything” and “If you defy the “law”, we will use violence upon you and yours” are not contradictory terms in Venezuela or the rest of Latin America, they are just facts of life we learned to live with.

    Number two: I don’t recall when exactly, but in the very late 1980s or early 1990s, there was an article in a major newspaper in Venezuela proudly announcing that the biggest employer in the country was officially the government. More than half of working Venezuelans derived their income to feed their families from the people in power, and that meant voting against the government meant voting against your wallet, voting against keeping your kids fed and a roof above your family and medication for grandma. Politics no longer was about ethereal principles like “Freedom” but real issues like having a job and not going hungry. And even if you were not on the Country’s payroll, more than likely you would be providing goods and services to those who were or to the government companies themselves. And people not only will they not fight against the government, but they will also gladly denounce to the proper intelligence authorities if they suspect anybody wants to do something against their security. Yes, they will snitch you at Warp 5 and have zero remorse about it because you are messing with their lives.

    Number three: Historically, Venezuela always had Caudillos that promised radical changes in our way of living, swearing they would improve them. People would throw support at them, but most ended up failures, and a very few were successful, only for the new man in the Presidential Chair to become just another version of the previous occupant. “Mismo musiu con diferente cachimbo” is an old Venezuelan saying roughly translated to: same guy with a different pipe AKA Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. People eventually get tired of broken promises, so when somebody comes along with visions of wealth and prosperity if you join him, the recently burned just ignore them. It takes time, usually almost a generation, to get a fresh crop of hopeful idiots to support a “change” that could end up in a successful transfer of power. The Left tried to get in the hard way in the early 1960s after the transition from a military regime to Democracy and failed because both people were sick of the instability, Castro had shown his colors, and true Democracy was the newest-coolest product in the market for Venezuela. But The Left knows how to play the long game and started to infiltrate universities and the Media with their “light version” of themselves (Me a Communist? Never! I believe in social change and equality like a good Christian!”) but never lost track of the country’s DNA and hence comes Comandante Hugo Chavez and his coup attempt.

    The coup failed… and not. Long story short: by the mid-1990s, thanks to a combination of corrupt practices, economic downturns and a very successful long-term campaign to undermine the country’s morale, people were once again ready for a “change” in the hands of a Caudillo. What the failed coup gave Chavez was a constant mention in the Media that amazingly fast went from negative for the people who got killed, to “we understand why he did it” to “Maybe he is the change we need” and people simply agreed with what been planted all along in their minds for many decades.

    And not only did they vote Chavez into power but voted to give him more power: He was able to dispose of the Supreme Court by popular vote. The same vote gave him the OK to change the constitution, control of the Election Council and grant himself re-elections for as long as he wanted. I laugh when I hear people now complain about how it was possible that Maduro rigged the elections, since Venezuela’s elections have been worse than a rigged reality-tv show before the Millennium kicked in.

    The above is a very simplified summary, and I am going to condense it even more: If the government feeds me and can kill me without consequence, why should I try to depose it to install a new set of assholes that probably won’t do any better?

    One last thing:

    “You can vote your way into socialism, but you’re going to have to shoot your way out.”

    We know this is true. They are willing to kill to remain in power, and killing is the only way to remove them. But then you read this:

    Just a couple of reminders: Peaceful demonstrations only work if the targets of those demonstrations are moral and scrupulous people.
    The Left mastered the “peaceful demonstrations” and knows its weaknesses.

    Until I see the stacks of pro-government bodies piled high on the streets of Caracas, I won’t believe that change is actually happening. And I doubt this will happen in my lifetime.

    — Miguel Gonzalez © 2024.

            

  • I wanted to talk about fire, today, because it’s one of those ubiquitous things. It’s just there. We don’t really think about it, in our world of Bic disposable lighters and all-weather matches. But fire is one of the prime things that makes us human. We harnessed it. But if we lost access to our modern methods of starting fire tomorrow, I think most people would be shit out of luck. That means no heat, no ability to boil water for purification, nothing to cook over… It’s an “end of civilization” issue.

    I have many levels of fire making tools in my personal kits. With my ren faire kit, I always keep disposable lighters for their ease of use. I also have strike-anywhere matches, just in case I have issues with the lighter, because it does happen. In my cutlery box, I keep a second disposable lighter, as a backup. I also have a tin that contains flint, steel, charcloth, and tinder. Back when I had a very old gas stove in my kitchen, I used to have a sparker, which looks like a giant safety pin.  You pull on the sides of it, and a metal bit goes over a flint, and you get a big spark every time. It’s much easier than flint and steel, for sure, but works best with gas of some kind.

    Let’s look at the various types of fire making we have, starting with easiest.

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  • This has been a week of Rants.

    There are things happening on the legal front. I need to go read those cases and digest them.

    Ally has been doing a fantastic job getting good articles out, with good engagement. Thank you, all.

    For those giving me feedback on grammar, thank you. It is very helpful. I do have some tools that help, but they are not perfect.

    I hope you all have a great weekend.

            

  • Almost everybody has seen the iconic image of Che Guevara. Looking heroic with his beret and unkempt look. His eyes looking off into the distance.

    That symbolism is not welcome in my home or in my spaces. If somebody were to wear something with his likeness in my presence, I would leave if it wasn’t my space, or tell them to remove the offensive article or leave my space.

    To quote Wikipedia:

    As a young medical student, Guevara traveled throughout South America and was appalled by the poverty, hunger, and disease he witnessed. His burgeoning desire to help overturn what he saw as the capitalist exploitation of Latin America by the United States prompted his involvement in Guatemala’s social reforms under President Jacobo Árbenz, whose eventual CIA-assisted overthrow at the behest of the United Fruit Company solidified Guevara’s political ideology. Later in Mexico City, Guevara met Raúl and Fidel Castro, joined their 26th of July Movement, and sailed to Cuba aboard the yacht Granma with the intention of overthrowing US-backed dictator Fulgencio Batista. Guevara soon rose to prominence among the insurgents, was promoted to second-in-command, and played a pivotal role in the two-year guerrilla campaign that deposed the Batista regime.

    You have to carefully parse those words to understand what it actually means. Note, I’m not a historian, just somebody that studies history.

    So what are the “social reforms” mentioned? Social reforms might not sound all that bad.

    This was “decree 900”, also known as the “Agrarian Reform Law”. This law took land from landowners, if the state felt that the landowners were not using the land. This is also known as “stealing”. In exchange for the forced sale of their land, the landowners were given “government bonds.”
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  • This past weekend was the end of Maine Renaissance Faire. It’s the last big fair that I’m involved in for the summer season, though I sometimes do short stints at others and I still have events at the Fort which are ongoing. Maine is a huge fair, and it’s a lot of fun to work it. It has two modes: flooding or choking on dust. The past two weekends, it was dust, and I was grateful. I have allergy pills, and I can wash myself. The flooding there is extreme when it happens, so I was thankful we didn’t need to deal with rain at all.

    Ren Faires, as you may know, are chock full of people who lean to the Left, politically speaking. I heard a lot of people saying rude things about Trump and Vance, and I kept my mouth shut most of the time. I make my money at Ren Faires, and I cannot afford to bring politics into my job. It would sink me financially. Other people don’t feel the same, and spout their politics at every chance. There were several times that I really wanted to comment, but I pressed my lips together and either left or changed the subject.

    A couple that I particularly like were camped near me, and caught my poorly hidden facial expressions during one such conversation that I couldn’t leave (it happened at my booth, and I can’t just up and leave that). The husband came over to visit with me as soon as the people left, to make sure I was alright. I did something I was worried I’d regret later; I told him the truth.

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  • If you are reading this, you are part of the 1% richest people in the world.

    I can confidently say that because there are so many people living in object poverty. Not poverty as defined by the government, but actual poverty.

    The government likes to define poverty in relative terms. This means that when you are part of a rich society, you can be “below the poverty line” and still be richer than most of the world’s population could ever dream of becoming.

    If you are reading this, you have a device capable of connecting to the Internet, that makes you wealthy.

    But wealth is not just money, it is also goods. I do not consider myself or my family to be well-off. We struggle to pay our monthly bills, we struggle to support our children’s quest for a collage education. It feels like we are always just one paycheck from disaster.

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  • For my wife:

            

  • My father’s side of the family is from Communist Hungary. I grew up on Hungarian foods, and learned several recipes that I have passed on to friends and family today. This recipe is straight from my Nagymama’s (that means “grandma” in Hungarian) kitchen, this recipe has the flavor of Hungary throughout it. The meat is tender, the broth tasty, and on a cold, winter day, nothing beats it! Remember that the delicate flavor of good, traditional goulash comes from a fine quality Hungarian paprika – look for the Szekezed label, which comes in a metal cannister in the spice sections of many grocery stores. There are usually two types available: hot and sweet. Both have a sweet flavor to them, but the hot one is QUITE hot. For this recipe you want the sweet one, although if you like your goulash to have a bit of bite, you can mix in some of the hot paprika, too!

    Ingredients for goulash:

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  • The state is constantly looking for weasel words in Supreme Court opinions to further their arrogant subjugation of their subjects. We see this in how they misconstrued the language of —United States V. Miller, 307 U.S. 174 (1939) to claim that the Second Amendment only protects militias.

    We see this when they misconstrue —District of Columbia v. Heller, 467 U.S. 837 (2008) to mean that “presumptively constitutional” means that any infringement is constitutional.

    We see this when they misconstrue —New York State Rifle & Pistol Assn., Inc. V. Bruen, 142 S.Ct. 2111 (U.S. 2022) to mean that anyplace can be designated as a “sensitive location” where infringements are required. Like defining all of Times Square as a sensitive place.

    The state is constantly looking for any words that could be taken to mean that infringement is allowed.

    —Opinion, United States v. Rahimi, 602 S.Ct. ____ (U.S. 2024) has far too many weasel words for the state to latch onto. Bad facts make for bad laws.

    Schoenthal v. Raoul in Chicago shows exactly this.

    After Rahimi was issued, the state in every case rushed to bring that opinion into their arguments. Not because their case had anything to do with individuals found to be credible threat of physical violence to another who had a court of law issue a domestic violence restraining order against them, but because they wanted to use the weasel words.

    In Schoenthal the state wanted a status hearing to set a supplemental briefing schedule. This is the official way to get more arguments before the court, regardless of the current status of the case.

    The state says it is a joint motion. This is true in fact, but not in spirit.

    The state wants to brief the court regarding how wonderful Rahimi is for their case. The plaintiffs (good guys) just want equal time, if the court allows the state to submit additional arguments.

    The judge said “No”.

    Now, the language the state is trying so hard to get into the record is suggest a law trapped in amber —id.. This is where the Supreme Court explained how to do regulation matching. The state latches on to “it doesn’t have to be an exact match, so our horrible, not even close, matches should be allowed.”

    So the state made a second motion to brief Rahimi to the court. This time they included the language they felt would save their case.

    The judge said “no” a second time.

    So the state, instead of requesting permission to brief the court on Rahimi, submitted a notice of supplemental authority regarding Rahimi. This was not the simple, “We wish to bring to the court’s attention that Rahimi was decided, no, this was a short brief with the state’s arguments.

    Therefore, the court said “no” again, a bit more forcibly.

    MINUTE entry before the Honorable Iain D. Johnston: Ms. Foxx’s notice of supplemental authority [106] is stricken. The Court is aware of Rahimi and has already denied two motions raised in light of Rahimi. The Court is making every effort to issue its opinion in a timely manner, and these filings are hindering those efforts. Please stop.
    —Schoenthal v. Raoul, No. 3:22-cv-50326 (N.D. Ill.)