• You are scrolling through the cesspool that is social media, and you stumble upon an article with a title of “FEMA refuses access to NC donations.”

    Your mind goes, “Yeah, FEMA sucks. Just another example of the government ‘helping’.”

    Why?

    Because your confirmation bias is at work. What you read matches what you expect to read, it matches what you want to be true.

    A leftist reads, “Trump makes racists comments at rally.” Their confirmation bias says that this is true.

    The confirmation bias can be so strong, that no amount of evidence can break through. The fine people hoax is a good example of this.

    We call it a hoax. They say we are lying. They know we are lying because “MAGAts” always lye. Besides, they have seen the video. He says those words.

    Confirmation bias can overtake common sense and people that generally make good decisions.

    The other day, Ally was telling me about Marjorie Taylor Greene saying something about government weather control in the house.

    I’ve heard MTG say really dumb things. She seems to be a good representative, but occasionally, she doesn’t apply common sense to what she is saying/thinking.

    Since I have come to expect MTG to say such “dumb things”, my confirmation bias kicked in. I was thinking, “Yeah, that sounds like something she would say, buying into the latest conspiracy theory.”

    This led to the next words out of my mouth, “I’ve not verified that she said that.”

    Ally told me she had. I accept that as a given. I still have not verified. I believe it to be true, I don’t know that it is true. Therefore, I tell you to verify before you pass it on.

    This morning, She showed me a video purporting to be a CBS “cut and paste” of answers into her interview.

    In the video, the top version showed Kamala answering a question without actually answering, but cleanly. The bottom version showed her answering the question in a faulting, stilled way.

    The interview is done with cut edits. A cut edit is when there is no transition from one scene to the next. It just “cuts” from one scene to the next.

    A standard interview technique is called the “one camera interview”. The camera is set up behind the interviewer, focused on the person being interviewed. The interviewer asks their questions, the camera records the answers. The camera is then repositioned facing the interviewer. They then run through the same questions with the camera recording the questions.

    Back in the studio, the two videos are spliced, making it appear that they are two cameras.

    You can see this used in some interview fakes. A person positions a camera pointing at themselves. They ask a series of questions. They then splice the answers from different interviews and different questions as the response. This makes the person being “interviewed” look like an idiot.

    When I was presented with the video of Kamala, my confirmation bias kicked in. Yes, CBS would do this. Yes, Kamala is so bad at answering questions, they likely had multiple takes. This is real.

    This caused me to go, “This is too good to be true. I need to verify.”

    CBS’ ’60 Minutes’ aired two different answers from VP Harris to the same question
    —Brian Flood, Text.Article, Harris campaign distances itself from ’60 Minutes’ edit: ‘We do not control CBS’s production decisions’, Fox News, (last visited Oct. 9, 2024)
            

  • Well, the VP debate was interesting. I thought it was MUCH better than the presidential one, for what that’s worth. I was pleasantly surprised that the moderators weren’t horrid (they had moments, but they weren’t horrid). I was very surprised at how well Walz did, as I’ve not seen him do much public speaking outside of rallies. Vance, on the other hand, did incredibly well. I was thrilled to see him answer each and every question put to him. The same cannot be said of Walz, Harris, OR Trump. If you’d like to read the transcript of the debate, you can do so here: CBS News Transcript.

    Tim Walz got hit with a rough question fairly early on. The moderators asked him whether it was true that he’d lied about being in China during the Tienanmen Square protest in ’89. He did not answer the question. He went on a rambling diatribe about small town America and taking teams on trips out of country. The moderator had to remind him that he hadn’t answered the question, and ask it again. He still dodged it:

    “MB: Governor, just to follow up on that, the question was, can you explain the discrepancy?

    TW: No. All I said on this was, is, I got there that summer and misspoke on this, so I will just, that’s what I’ve said. So I was in Hong Kong and China during the democracy protest, went in, and from that, I learned a lot of what needed to be in governance.”

    Almost immediately after, the moderator asked Vance about why he changed his stance from being anti-Trump to being the VP pick. I loved Vance’s response:

    “…I’ve disagreed with the President, but I’ve also been extremely open about the fact that I was wrong about Donald Trump. I was wrong, first of all, because I believed some of the media stories that turned out to be dishonest fabrications of his record. But most importantly, Donald Trump delivered for the American people rising wages, rising take home pay, an economy that worked for normal Americans. A secure southern border. A lot of things, frankly, that I didn’t think he’d be able to deliver on. And yeah, when you screw up, when you misspeak, when you get something wrong and you change your mind, you ought to be honest with the American people about it.”

    It was a gentle but firm kick in Walz’s teeth, that Vance could be honest about his mistakes, and about his personal growth.

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  • According to the Solicitor General of the United States:

    And Congress made clear in the statutory history that the reason it used that term (weapon) is because there are objects out there, toys and tools, that have a well-known non-weapon use but that actually do expel projectiles through the action of an explosive.

    A — a cap gun is an example of this. It — it expels bird shot, and so, therefore, it would fit within the functional definition. But it’s not a weapon because it’s not an instrument of combat or intended to be used in that way.

    The gist of the ATF’s argument is that the GCA of 1968 defined a frame or receiver as something that could be readily converted into a firearm. Therefore, the defining aspect is how much time and skill it takes to convert a thing into a firearm.

    If we have a small, purpose built, CNC machine which we load with a piece of 7075 bar stock, we push the button, and 3 hours later there is an AR15 lower receiver, is that 7075 bar stock a frame or receiver?

    The ATF is arguing that if you sell that CNC machine along with the piece of 7075, then the 7075 is a receiver.

    JUSTICE ALITO: — if I show you — I put out on a counter some eggs, some chopped-up ham, some chopped-up pepper, and onions, is that a western omelet?

    GENERAL PRELOGAR: No, because, again, those items have well-known other uses to become something other than an omelet.

    The key difference here is that these weapon parts kits are designed and intended to be used as instruments of combat, and they have no other conceivable use.

    And I think the further evidence comes from the fact that Respondents themselves agree that a disassembled gun qualifies as a weapon. So this is on page 37 of the Anderson brief.

    So, if the parts have “well-known other uses”, then it isn’t a frame or receiver? How about a business card with an etching of a firearm component? Business cards have “well-known other uses”.

    JUSTICE BARRETT: General Prelogar, I just want to follow up on Justice Alito’s question about the omelet.

    Would your answer change if you ordered it from HelloFresh and you got a kit, and it was like turkey chili, but all of the ingredients are in the kit?

    GENERAL PRELOGAR: Yes. And I think that that presses on the — the more apt analogy here, which is that we are not suggesting that scattered components that might have some entirely separate and distinct function could be aggregated and called a weapon in the absence of this kind of evidence that that is their intended purpose and function.

    So it is not a frame or receiver unless there is evidence that the intended purpose is to make a frame or receiver? Again, this means that if I have a 50% lower and the skills and instructions, that makes it a receiver?

    A 0% lower is a piece of bar stock. A 50% lower is one where no machining has been done to the forging. An 80% lower is one where the surface has been decked, the buffer socket machined and threaded plus several other operations, stopping short of being a receiver
    But, if you bought, you know, from Trader Joe’s some omelet-making kit that had all of the ingredients to make the omelet and maybe included whatever you would need to start the fire in order to cook the omelet and had all of that objective indication that that’s what’s being marketed and sold, we would recognize that for what it is.

    And it — it doesn’t stretch plain English to say, I bought omelets at the store, if you bought all of the ingredients that were intended and designed to make them, especially under statutory language that refers to something like breakfast foods or things that can be readily converted to make breakfast.

    The last time I went to the grocery and purchased a taco kit and some ground beef, I came home and told my wife, “I brought home tacos”.

    She would have smacked me upside the head if I had told her, “It’s readily convertible into tacos, so it is the same.”

    JUSTICE BARRETT: I have a question about AR-15s. So Judge Oldham expressed concern that because AR-15 receivers can be readily converted into machine gun receivers, that this regulation on its face turns everyone who lawfully owns an AR-15 into a criminal.

    GENERAL PRELOGAR: That is wrong. So I want to be really clear about our interpretation of the statute. We are not suggesting that a statutory reference to one thing includes all other separate and distinct things that might be readily converted into the thing that’s listed in the statute itself.

    The difference, in the ATF’s eyes, between an AR-15, perfectly legal to own with no tax stamp, and a “machinegun”, requiring a tax stamp, is one hole placed above the selector switch.

    They are so concerned about that one hole, that if that location is even marked, it is considered a machinegun.

    Never mind that you need an auto-sear, an M16 trigger, an M16 disconnector, an M16 selector switch, and an M16 hammer, just a dimple makes that receiver a machinegun.

    What the Solicitor General is arguing is that it is a jig that makes a hunk of aluminum a receiver. This strongly implies that if somebody were to create a jig for drilling the hole for the auto-sear, that would make almost every AR-15 lower receiver a machine gun.

    Or it could go back to the evil days of the 6 magic parts. If your AR-15 had any of the 6 magic parts in it, then it was a machine gun. If you had any one of an M16: auto-sear, hammer, trigger, disconnector, selector, or bolt carrier, then you had a machinegun.

    Now it will be a simple jig. How simple? It is an L shaped piece with two holes drilled in it. The top hole is a drill guide. The lower hole has a pin press fit. Put the pin into the selector hole. Put the small leg of the L over the deck of the receiver. The small hole is in the correct place to drill for an auto-sear.

    You can read the transcript if you would like. It isn’t difficult, but some arguments are difficult to follow.

            

  • https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTFUyS4At/

     

    @adampopemusic “Five Hundred Year Flood” 🙏 #hurricanehelene #flood #blueridgemountains #appalachia #smokymountainstennessee #folkmusic #folksong #flood ♬ original sound – Adam Pope Music

    Go and listen. It’s not available anywhere but TikTok right now because the guy (Adam Pope) wrote it and recorded it there. He had no idea it would take off. It’s *good*. It captures the feeling of what’s going on down there. It really is a song that has faint whispers of Johnny Cash and a whiff of Appalachia.

            

  • That nip in the evening air, the scent of rain in the distance, and the sound of falling leaves in the forest behind the house all call to me that it’s soup weather! My favorite part about soup is that you can make pretty much anything into soup if you really want to. My turkey noodle soup is a great example. On Sunday evening, we treated ourselves to a lovely turkey breast for our supper. It was much too large for us to finish, even though it wasn’t a whole turkey, and so I diligently denuded the carcass of meat and put it into the fridge for use later in the week. Then it occurred to me that I ought to make broth!

    This is a great recipe to use if you’ve got leftover carcass of any kind. If you like to pick up rotisserie chicken, it’s perfect for making this kind of soup.

    Ingredients for the stock/broth:

    • 1 stripped carcass (turkey or chicken), with whatever skin and gristle there is
    • any drippings from the cooking process
    • the skin of 1 or more onion
    • several crushed garlic cloves, skin on
    • the peelings of 1 or more carrots
    • the leafy tops of 1 or more stalks of celery
    • salt and pepper to taste
    • fresh herbs to taste (optional)

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  • “Management Agency” is the key here.

    In leadership courses we hear the phrase “Either lead, follow or get the fuck out of the way.” There is a strong reason for this, projects fail when leadership is weak.

    “A bad decision now is better than a good decision too late,” is another.

    What this means is that in a situation where leadership is needed, we need a good leader, and then we need to follow them. If we are not following, then we might be the de facto leader. If we are not following, and we are not leading, we are the problem.

    If you want to see a prime example of failed leadership, consider your local PTA. There are reputations at stake, there is money on the table. And there are a dozen voices, all attempting to get their way.

    A natural leader has an ability to lead that comes from their nature, and their upbringing. They might have augmented that natural ability with training. They are still few and far between.

    Trained leaders are those that have been through training on how to lead. They might be able to lead, but they are likely to be uncomfortable leading. This causes failure in trust and mistakes.

    In a disaster, leaders will step up at the time of the event. These will be those that who are natural leaders. The “trained” leaders are likely to be slow to step up, hoping that someone else will take on the mantel of leadership.

    This is precisely what we saw in the current disaster. The natural leaders got up and did.

    These people heard the call of duty, put their lives on hold, grabbed what they could and went into action. When they arrived at the scene, they self organized. That is to say, leaders stepped forward and did what was needed.

    Because they are doers, things got done. The right people were in the right place doing the right thing.

    When FEMA arrives, they bring two things with them, a checkbook and “management”.

    If the management is good, then they will slide into the existing system, their natural or trained leadership skills will shine through, and they will make it easier for the doers to get things done.

    The horrible truth is that the people that FEMA brings to the party are unlikely to be natural leaders. Natural leaders do not find themselves as low-level government employees.

    These examples of petty bureaucrats arrive on scene and start following their scripts. Just like they were taught in class.

    They start by making an inventory of the goods and capabilities they have on hand. According to the book, this is more important than actually seeing those goods and services being delivered to those in need.

    A primary goal is to make sure that those most in need get the help they need. This means holding back on the supplies at hand, to have a reserve for when they find those in desperate need.

    Because they are a management team, when they step in, they take over all the prepositioned goods and services.

    Being management, they need to make sure that they are rested and prepared for the next day’s work.

    As you might guess, this is written from the perspective of the petty bureaucrat. They believe they are doing good. They believe they know better. They believe they are the saviors.

    The correct answer is that they should arrive with hat in hand and ask, “how can I help?”. Instead, they know they are supposed to lead, and leaders take control and bark orders.

    FEMA is a failure at this point.

    That, and they have been used to funnel money to illegal immigrants, makes it all the worse.

    “We are from the government, we are here to help.” is a strong indication that it is time for SSS.

            

  • There are two cases that have been granted certiorari so far. I expect there to be three or four this term.

    The most important, in the long term, is Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. et al. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos.

    This is a lawfare case initiated by Mexico against a number of firearm related companies. Wholesalers, manufacturers, and retailers. It was brought in Massachusetts. The reasoning is obvious, Massachusetts hates guns. The First Circuit hates guns. The First Circuit is a known rogue inferior court.

    The gist of the case is that people who make and sell guns know that some of their guns will be used illegally. They also know that they will be used illegally in Mexico. The companies did not do enough to keep guns out of Mexico. Therefore, they are responsible for the violence using guns in Mexico.

    This is another attack on the PLCAA, Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act. The PLCAA was passed to stop frivolous lawsuits against firearms dealers. It affords those that make and sell guns protected from responsibility for the miss use of their products. Just like every other industry in the country.

    Ford Motor Company is not responsible when a drunk driver kills somebody while driving a Ford F150. Chicago Cutlery is not responsible when somebody uses a cheap kitchen knife to kill somebody. Stanley is not responsible when somebody uses one of their hammers to bludgeon somebody to death.

    The firearms’ industry is the only tool that is blamed for the misuse of their products.

    2022, murder by handguns: 7936. Murder by firearm, type unstated: 5704. Murder by knife: 1630. Murder by rifle: 541. Murder by hammer: 367.

    The district court dismissed the case as a PLCAA protected case. The bad guys appealed to the First Circuit where, of course, they decided the suit was novel and somehow outside the PLCAA. The good guys requested cert. back in April.

    Cert was granted October 4th.

    Why is this case so important? Because this is the second large case that has directly attacked the ability of firearm manufacturers for damages. The Sandy Hook case was part of the reason that Remington went bankrupt.

    The idea is not to win these cases, the idea is to drain these companies of money. If they win, so much the better, if they lose, they still win.

    It is a backdoor path to gun control.

    If these large cases succeed, we will see this lawfare extend down to the smallest of entities. Every FFL will be scared of somebody suing them because a firearm they sold was misused.

    The Supreme Court is highly likely to rule in favor of the PLCAA. The arguments given by the bad guys are feeble. The case is interlocutory (not completed at the district and circuit levels.) That there isn’t a circuit split. That the district court dismissed the counts against some of the good guys.

    All the reasons given by the bad guys did not stop the Supreme Court from granting cert. Now we will see what the merit fillings will be.

    The second case that was granted Cert. is Garland v. VanDerStok. This is the case where the ATF decided that a hunk of aluminum is a firearm because it might someday become a firearm.

    The GCA of 1968 defines a “firearm” and “frames and receivers”. A frame or receiver is a thing that can be readily converted into a firearm.

    An AR-15 lower receiver, with attached stock and grip, along with an FCG is not a functional gun. You have to pair it with an upper receiver to create a functional firearm.

    Since this is so easy, the lower receiver is considered a firearm because it can be readily converted to one.

    An AR15 lower receiver starts as either a piece of aluminum bar stock or as a forging.

    It is not a “firearm” under the 1968 GCA until it reaches that stage where it can be readily converted into a functional firearm.

    The ATF has long held that you can completely mill/form the outside of the receiver. That includes decking the top, establishing and threading the buffer tube connection. Forming the grip area.

    You can also drill and ream the holes for the pivot pins, the trigger guard, the magazine latch, the bolt hold open, and all detent pin holes. The magazine catch slot and the bolt hold open slot can also be completely milled.

    If you mark the location of the selector switch, trigger, hammer, or auto-sear pin holes, then it is enough to be a receiver, as defined by the 1968 GCA. Marking any part of the fire control pocket is also a no no.

    The ATF decided that they wanted people purchasing hunks of aluminum that they intended to turn into receivers to fill out 4473s and to have background checks done. So they changed the law.

    A frame or receiver is something that can be readily converted into a firearm.

    The ATF no claims that something that can be converted into a frame or receiver is also a firearm.

    There is no stopping this camel, once it gets its nose in the tent. The ATF could define a hunk of aluminum bar stock as a firearm. They’ve stated that hunks of plastic and aluminum with instructions are firearms. Without those instructions, they are not firearms.

    An 80% frame or receiver is not a firearm, but an 80% frame or receiver with a jig is a firearm.

    This is likely to be decided on process and not the Second Amendment protected rights.

    There are a few other cases teed up. These include the Maryland Assault Weapon/Large Capacity Magazine ban. The California’s LCM ban, if the Ninth actually issues an opinion this decade. In addition, there are a couple of cases coming out of Illinois that would look very nice on the Supreme Court docket.

    Our first case, VanDerStock will be heard on October 8th, 2024. This coming Tuesday.

            

  • I’m exhausted. I’ve been pulling fiber for the last two days. All part of an infrastructure upgrade.

    Normally, pulling cable in a modern datacenter is pretty easy. This is not a modern datacenter.

    The original cable runs were CAT6 with RJ45 connectors. When the cables were installed, the installation had to be nondestructive. No holes in walls, no holes in floors. Hide the cables as best you can.

    One of the cables we removed was to a defunct workstation. It had been run across the floor and then covered with a protective layer to keep it from getting cut or snagged. The outer insulation had been ripped away. There was bare copper showing. Fortunately, that particular workstation hasn’t been in place for a few years.

    The backbone switch was mounted in the basement. Not a real issue. The people who pulled some of the last cable didn’t bother to put in any cable hangers. So it had loops just dangling.

    There were drops that could not be identified. Those are now disconnected, but nobody complained, so nothing was taken offline.

    I’ve found a new favorite cable organizer.

    Cable Management Wire Organizer

    These are reusable. They open fully and will hold many cat6 and even more fiber. They have the 3M foam double-sided tape on them. This works great against smooth, clean surfaces.

    The place where they shine is that they also have a hole designed for a #6 screw. In places where there were no smooth surfaces, much less clean surfaces. The sticky held them in place long enough to drive a screw.

    There are no more dangling cables.

    My only hope is that there are no more configuration issues with the new switch. *caugh*DHCP*caugh*

            

  • This is a person I have been following for years. She has shown herself to be honest. When she makes mistakes, she comes back, acknowledges the error, corrects the error and moves on.

    She was in MA, she is currently in TN(?)

            

  • It seems appropriate to talk about what to do after a flood, right now. With all the devastation down in the southern states, it’s on all our minds.

    First and foremost, if you’re in the path of something and you know about it, listen to locals. If you’re asked to evacuate, DO SO. The people in the Carolinas and Tennessee didn’t receive evacuation orders until after it was too late, but people in Florida knew what was coming. Those who chose to stay behind did so at their own peril. When you ignore an evacuation order, you are telling the authorities that you are entirely on your own, and do not expect any aid from them. You do so knowing that 911 won’t work, that health and medical emergencies will need to be dealt with in house, and that you’ve decided you know better than the weatherman.

    I realize it can be hard to leave everything behind. I’ve done it twice in my life, and it wasn’t any easier the second time than it was the first. What you’re leaving behind is Stuff and Things, and I guarantee you, Stuff and Things are not nearly important as Friends and Family. I speak with experience and authority here. Leaving ahead of an emergency allows you to leave on your own terms.  You can take the time to pack bags, to grab family photographs and important documentation. You can bring along family pets, and favorite children’s toys. Leaving (or attempting to leave) once the emergency is upon you means you’re leaving on the emergency’s terms, rather than your own. You may not have time to find the cat cowering in the basement, or find the woobie your kid can’t sleep without.

    If you can’t leave, for whatever reason, then you need to make reasonable plans for what is likely to happen, what could happen, and what is unlikely to happen. There will always be things that can’t be planned for (like the current destruction of Asheville, for example), but you have to do your best.

    In my area, we deal with freezing rain often enough that we know the power will go out at least once, and likely twice over the winter. In the spring, it’s wet weather and high winds knocking down trees and taking out power lines. The most likely occurrence is that we’ll be without power for a day or less. What might happen is that we’re out of power for a couple of days, and our water might be affected. It’s unlikely that we’ll be out for more than a few days, but we have things on hand to make that less troublesome if it does happen. We’ll be very busy canning all the stuff in our freezer, honestly.

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