FBEL – Panic Over Tariffs

I am well and truly confused over the panic that’s currently occurring over the use of tariffs. An acquaintance of mine just posted the following (changed slightly to protect the author, who I didn’t ask before posting this):

We have to reconstruct the exterior stairs that were ripped off this house before we moved in, so there is a second exit during an emergency. This requires wood. Which comes from Canada. I also sell books, otherwise known as printed paper. Which comes from China. Tariffs, that’s where my money goes.

I had to ask said person, where are they printing their books? The last price hike I had, via Amazon KDP, was a couple or three years ago, and came to a grand total of about four cents on each of my books. I chose to eat the cost; it wasn’t enough to bother the customers. There doesn’t appear to be any kind of price hike going on at KDP for print-on-demand, and while there’s no definitive answer available (as with all things Amazon related), it appears as if about half their paper is recycled (meaning we recycle it and turn it into more paper here in America), and the other half is “sourced from the cheapest domestic available,” which to me means whatever they have on hand but local if it’s not prohibitive. At the very least, it’s not enough to cost me more per book to print.

Obviously I can’t speak for other companies, but I have to say… if Amazon, the Great Gouger, isn’t raising prices… well, I am going to guess no one else is either.

When it comes to wood, I can speak a bit more authoritatively. In 2024, about 72% of our wood for building (lumber) came from domestic sources. That means it was sourced here in the good ol’ United States. That’s about to change, because of the tariffs on Canadian imports. The cost of new homes will go up. Currently, that cost is NOT up. And it is entirely possible to buy American lumber for making exterior stairs or other small projects. Does American lumber cost more? For the moment, that’s possible, though I couldn’t find an example of it. Once the tariffs kick in, American lumber will go up slightly in price (because we don’t have the huge forests that Canada does, and so we can’t be cutting down as many trees as they do and have it be sustainable), but it’ll still be less than wood from Canada.

I just don’t get it.

A few weeks ago, someone commented about how awful it was that everything they make and everything they buy is going to go up in price and be unaffordable soon. I asked what they were buying that was going to cost them so much, because I have been following the “buy local” thing for years now, because that’s the right thing to do… because that IS the right thing to do, right? To buy local? That’s what the Left has been pushing for years and years, to support your local community and small businesses? Right?

Now, I do have some sympathy for people who make things that utilize “whizigigs” that they get out of China. I have a friend who makes her living sewing corsets and stays. She makes a GOOD living at it, too. She was just informed that some of her materials are about to get hit with tariffs… and there is nowhere else for her to purchase those parts. There isn’t anyone in America manufacturing them (like… at all, not just higher cost). She doesn’t buy enough to support a factory making those parts, so she’s stuck. She buys from China, or some other country, and she HAS to pay tariffs. Luckily she actually understands what’s going on, and simply informed her customers of what was happening, and that she would have to pass on the costs but she’d do her best to keep it down, and that she doesn’t expect it’ll be forever.

Because Americans outsourced a lot of their widgets years ago, we don’t have manufacturers that make many of those widgets anymore. It’s just always been cheaper to have the slave labor in China or Vietnam make them. There was no point in having factories here to make them. Point of fact, even WITH tariffs, it might end up being cheaper to buy out of other countries. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that. A robust global economy helps us, and helps everyone else. It does suck that we simply cannot buy local for some of this stuff, though. My aforementioned friend would be buying American if she could, even at the higher price, because she’s that kind of person. But she can’t, because they simply aren’t made here. I doubt that’ll change.

Amazon made a big deal about saying they’d display added tariffs, but I’m not seeing that happening yet. What I’m seeing, at least in my part of New England, is prices finally starting to come down after a long time of upward mobility. Groceries are getting more affordable by the day. I’m excited at the thought of more local and local-ish options. These are GOOD things, not bad things. And if I have to pay a bit extra for some of my gewgaws out of China, because I happen to be slightly addicted to certain types of cheap Chineseum crap, then so be it. Paying a bit extra for my fun (sin tax, as it were) is not a problem. It helps me keep my “bad spending” under control.

So why the panic? I just don’t see the point. No one I’ve talked to has been able to give me anything concrete to explain the panic. I ask people like my acquaintance in the opening paragraphs questions, about why they are having such high prices, and they can’t answer me. Most of the time, they’re projecting, and the prices aren’t actually any higher. The few times they are, I can generally find them much cheaper American alternatives… but they don’t seem to want that. And again, I don’t understand that, coming from the “buy local” preachers I live near. I do buy local whenever possible, and have been for years.

Have any of you seen an up-tick in prices for anything you buy on the regular? I expected coffee prices to go up, but at least so far, that’s not the case. Eggs are coming down. Firewood is about the same. Chicken is about the same. Pork has come down a bit. I’m just not finding anything that’s skyrocketed.


Comments

10 responses to “FBEL – Panic Over Tariffs”

  1. Bad Dancer Avatar
    Bad Dancer

    One of my vendors is having to raise the price of a firearm part because the machine shop he uses slammed him with a 10 dollar per item raise citing tarriffs and their ability to get various machining fluids.

    It’s utter bull, what is happening is a shady businessman saw his chance to gouge not knowing that my guy and myself would look in to his claim and remeber it when the time for another order comes round. Many of the price increases that I have seen are the same thing in that a company, usually someone in middle management, sees an opportunity to sneak in a lil extra and is taking their chance.

    1. I know. None of the tariffs have taken effect yet, and we’re getting hit with fees. I understand certain types of people making small rise in price notations, but the huge numbers are ridiculous. Companies seem to just be taking advantage of the idea of tariffs to stiff everyone.

  2. CBMTTek Avatar
    CBMTTek

    “I am well and truly confused over the panic that’s currently occurring over the use of tariffs.”

    Not sure why. The real answer is the news media is causing the panic. Their reason can be as simple as getting more eyeballs on screens (as bad news does), or it could be an editorial action because “TRUMP!” I will not comment on their reasons, only on the impact it has on society.

    Does the news media provide any cost analysis? No, they do not, instead they simply state “Tariffs on Canada will cause the cost of lumber to go up.” without saying how much. Leaves the reader/watcher to make their own assumptions. Same with any other tariff/tax.

    Where was this coverage when Biden’s Secretary of Transportation was taking paternity leave for months when our ports were in disarray? Crickets. How about the increase in costs due to 11+% inflation early in the Biden years? Again… nada. In fact, they tried to downplay it as your July 4th BBQ will only be a few cents more. (Exactly what you did with your publishing example.)

    This is not about the tariffs at all. This is about getting the news media’s preferred party more seats in Congress in 2026, and the White House in 2028. So… get everyone to panic.

  3. curby Avatar

    according to Mr Limbaugh there are more trees in this Country now than there were when George Washington was president….. no offense luv but “sustainable” around here is a liberal bs buzz word that sounds important but isnt… my state has plenty of trees, we just have a lack of paper mills..theres a few lumber mills here too.. noone is whining about the tariffs WE had to pay to other countries in order to sell our products to them… and noone is crying about the countries that no longer tariff us at all.. media hype because orange man bad….

    1. It does appear that there are more trees right now than there were 100 years ago, but we don’t have the old growth stuff, the hardwoods. While soft woods are fine for much of what we do, hardwood is important as well, and it takes a long time to grow. So sustainability is a real thing.

      For example, the reason that Notre Dame was able to be repaired as quickly as it was is largely because they had saved a section of old growth trees JUST for that kind of emergency. I am pretty sure we don’t have that kind of old growth just laying around.

      But yes, we need more paper mills. We can also use recycled paper, which cuts down on lots of other stuff (and I rather like the recycled stuff for some of my printing). And yes, some of us ARE whining about the tariffs we pay (not had to pay) to other countries. 😉

  4. Was your friend complaining about four years ago when wood prices went through the roof (for no apparent reason).

    The reason your Prog friends are in a tizzy is that their echo chamber tells them to be.

    1. Nope, they were not. I may have pointed that out. I didn’t get a reply, by the by. 🙂

  5. ribeye Avatar
    ribeye

    Just today I went to Harbor Freight to pick up a tool I know they used to have and they told me they didn’t have it in stock. On top of that they seemed unsure whether they’d ever have it in stock again and attributed this all to the tariffs causing their management to reconsider inventory and prices on a lot of things. This is the first time I felt actually effected by the tariffs and for Harbor Freight I’m not surprised at all.

    I do think these also can present opportunities; I’m looking at starting a company to make some goods needed but not manufactured in the US, but the rapidly changing situation makes what looked good two months ago not always great any more. Who knows who will be tariffed or how much in six months ? Makes it hard to commit to a business that depends on 10 or 20 percent price differences on imports.

    1. Exactly. The tariffs are there because of anticipation, not because of reality. While some businesses really do need to up prices a bit in advance in order not to blast their customers when the tariffs actually do hit, most do not and there are way too many upping prices for no good reason.

      And I totally hear you about the manufacturing end of it. No one wants to start up a widget company until they find out whether said company will be competitive. If China caves and drops their tariffs, and we end up going back to cheap Chineseum, no factory in America is going to be able to compete. Therefore, there’d be no sense creating it. Until things settle down, we really don’t know how it’s going to play out.

      1. ribeye Avatar
        ribeye

        I think you underestimate the need to anticipate the tariffs. It takes like a month for a ship to cross from China to America, and tariffs are collected when the item arrives here, not when it leaves port. Harbor Freight is in a niche where they mostly import OK quality, cheap Chinese manufactured tools and hardware. If they make an order from China today, it’ll take a full month for them to be sure how much that order is going to cost them, tariffs could be zero percent, or they could be 100%. Could even be 200%, no one really knows. Meanwhile imports from other sources might not be effected or be subject to lower tariffs. No one goes to HF for great quality tools, they go there because its cheap.

        Now I know there are markups and other US side costs that raise the price. One hundred percent tariffs won’t necessitate 100% raise in prices, but this can very easily leave them with a big pile of inventory that suddenly can’t be sold at a profit–and there’s no way to know this at the time they order the goods.

        That’s not to say there isn’t dishonesty/opportunism going on too. When the situation stabilizes maybe HF will just wind up importing more from Taiwan or something and less from China.

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