https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTNgJrsMe/

I hadn’t heard much about Tim Walz before this, but apparently he’s quite the character. He’s 60, probably to give Harris’s youth a wisdom boost.

Per the Left:

•  he’s a veteran, having served in the Army
• Governor of Minnesota, defeated the Republican nominee
• codified abortion rights into the State Constitution
• staunch union supporter
• free breakfast and lunch for all students
• made Minnesota a “transgender children’s sanctuary”
• Mid-western appeal and a “dad vibe”
• he adores his cat (not sure why this is a pro but a few places mentioned it, so…)
• he was a teacher and football coach
• is known as a “good gun owner”
• he likes Mountain Dew (so does JD Vance, and this is apparently important??)
• he’s run against Republicans successfully several times now
• he speaks well about what he has done and what he wants to do
• David Hogg likes him (the Left considers this a positive)

Per the Right:

• has a DUI from 95
• dealt badly with the George Floyd riots
• wants to defund the police
• was draconian during COVID-19
• apparently he’s given free college and free medical to illegal aliens
• interfered in a police shooting case
• after the Parkland massacre, he became vocally anti-gun
• most of what he’s done and wants to do is skirting unconstitutional
• David Hogg likes him (the Right considers this a negative)

Apparently, the Left think that calling the Right “weird” is causing discomfort for conservatives. That’s not what I’ve observed. Most people on the Right seem to be embracing the concept of being the weird ones. I’ve seen some rather fun videos from people on the Right, showing a variety of truly odd ducks from the Left, then saying, “But I’m definitely weird because I like cheese pizza,” and things like that.

In any case, there you go. Having heard the video above, I have a strong feeling of dislike for Walz. That may change, but I doubt it. But he does feel like he could change the tide slightly. As The Guardian noted, “It’s part of a vibe shift Democrats are feeling since Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t seek re-election. There’s less focus on the dire consequences of electing Trump again – though those consequences are certainly still part of the motivation – and more on detailing what Democrats want to do if they win.” —Guardian

I think we need to keep a close eye on the guy. Let’s not allow Trump to fall into the “attack mode” he used last time. That was a failing gambit. His current methods, amusing jabs but mostly sticking to talking about policy and what he’s going to do and has done, are working well. I don’t want to see him “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”

Last week, a friend of mine who lives in London, England, posted the above image. The friend is someone I’ve known for some 30 years, maybe longer, though we’ve never met face to face. She works as a “lay therapist,” which is someone who tries to help when medical help is lacking due to there being too many mental health emergencies and not enough mental health providers. If you think it’s bad in America, try Britain. Oy. She’s a GOOD person, though she is fully Left. She walks her talk, which is more than I can say about a lot of people. I respect her. But last week, I wanted to beat my head against a wall, I was so frustrated.

I saw the image, and immediately wrote the following:

She then spent a couple of hours telling me all sorts of things that justified the idea that all of the above statements mean no. I am flabbergasted. I could maybe see “stop” as being the same as “no” because it’s a firm and complete statement. But the rest of them? They don’t mean no.

When I tell my partner, “Wait…” I’m not telling him no. I’m telling him… oh yeah, WAIT. Give me a minute. The word has a meaning, and the meaning is to delay an action. Nothing in there about no.

When I tell someone that I hurt, it doesn’t mean no. It means that I have a pain, and that pain could be physical, spiritual, emotional, or mental. None of that means no.

If I tell someone, “Not now,” that’s a very clear message that maybe later we will do whatever. That’s most definitely NOT NO.

I went on to say:

“Sorry, this is one of those big bugaboos for me. Mitigating language is so horribly destructive of relationships as a whole. It gets us into really bad places. It’s fine to tell someone you’re hurting; that’s how they learn not to hurt you. But if you say NO, that should be that. Period, end of statement. Think of it as a ‘safeword,’ if you like. Ow is not a safeword but it is an indication that something might need to change. NO is a safeword – all activity stops. There’s no mitigating with ‘no.’ I firmly believe that all this mitigating language has been brought in by people who don’t want to hear or use the word ‘no.’ The problem is, ‘no’ is the correct word to use. And we must teach people how to use it, and to use it when they need.”

I think I was being pretty clear. She insisted that the meme was clear. I gave clear examples that the meme was not clear. I don’t understand at all.

I suspect that this is a (very mild) example of the Leftist speech you all sometimes talk about. Words don’t mean what they meant, the meanings change daily, you can never know what something means. That’s just wrong. And this is someone who is perceived as a professional (and IS a professional, as she underwent an awful lot of intensive training for the position, and as near as I can tell, she’s generally very helpful and good at her job), telling broken people how to communicate. How is this helpful? What’s wrong with using the clear language?

How are young people supposed to go about their lives, when they’re taught that all these things mean no? Especially women! I’m sorry, but women MUST learn how to say no, firmly. Mitigating language is not going to help any woman, ever. The only thing mitigating language is good for, is when you’re letting someone down gently when you’re firing or laying them off, or something of that kind. Or telling them that the dress really does make their ass look big. THOSE are moments when mitigating language is acceptable. But when you’re expecting clear and concise communication, like during a sexual act? My gawd!

Yes, I’m being all horrified over here. I don’t understand how this is even a discussion, never mind an argument. We’ve been pushing the “no means no” thing for ages, and we don’t need all this mitigating language messing up a lesson that’s already apparently horrendously difficult to learn.

Good grief.

There are 15 shooting sports in the current Olympic Games:

1. 10m Air Rifle Men
2. 50m Rifle 3 Positions Men
3. 10m Air Pistol Men
4. 25m Rapid Fire Pistol Men
5. Trap Men
6. Skeet Men
7. 10m Air Rifle Women
8. 50m Rifle 3 Positions Women
9. 10m Air Pistol Women
10. 25m Pistol Women
11. Trap Women
12. Skeet Women
13. 10m Air Rifle Mixed Team
14. 10m Air Pistol Mixed Team
15. Skeet Mixed Team

The pistol and rifle are .22 Caliber, the trap, and skeet are 12gage. The air pistol and air rifle fire 10 mm projectiles.

In reading the rules, they talk about how the shooting jackets are padded to reduce recoil.

How would they deal with the recoil from a 30-06? It boggles the mind.

The rapid shooting requires 5 rounds on target from low ready in 4, 6 and 8 seconds.

Jerry’s 6, reload, 6 in 1.9 seconds would likely break their heads. Of course, they are looking for accuracy rather than speed. Jerry puts all of his rounds in the A box, that is different from the ISSF target.

The 10 Ring is 100 mm in diameter with the inner 10 being 50 MM, the outer ring is 500 mm. They define a miss a bit differently than we would at “9.7”.

Regardless, there are still real rifles at the Olympics.

Guest entry by Allyson/Hagar:

A couple of decades ago, I was volunteering at a pagan festival. Among other things, my then-boyfriend and I were doing some singing and entertaining (he played guitar, and my voice was still not too bad, back then). We were attending the planning meetings, as one does, and offering ideas.

The organizers made a statement that the festival was going to be vegan. I commented that, while I agreed that provided food (included with the ticket) could be vegan (which can usually be eaten by most people), we knew plenty of meat eaters who were coming. We should each be allowed to bring whatever food we want, and if it contains an allergen, just sit away from people who might be harmed by it. We were voted down, of course. The organizers decreed that no meat or animal products could be brought on site (let’s not talk about the leather in their shoes or anything like that). I was irritated, not because I need to eat meat (I happen to enjoy vegan food at times), but because I didn’t think it was the place of the organizers to be dictating the food choices of others.

After talking it over with the boyfriend, we decided to perform this particular song, without mentioning it to the organizers.

We were given thunderous applause when we were done, by every person except the one organizer who’d been behind the food fiasco. Even the resident vegans thought it was hilarious. The organizer just looked grumpy. I felt much better. Heh!

No, it looks like this:

There is nothing I love more than gazpacho soup on a hot day. It’s refreshing and cool, flavorful and filling. This is a recipe that I adore, and I hope you’ll enjoy trying it out over the hot August nights. I like to serve this with fresh salad shrimp just popped in, right before serving. Bonus points if they’re just shy of frozen, keeping the soup chilled as it hits the table!

Ingredients:

▢ 1½ lbs red heirloom or beefsteak tomatoes OR 1½ lbs canned whole tomatoes
▢ 1 cucumber, peeled, plus more diced for garnish
▢ 1 orange bell pepper, seeded and cored
▢ juice of half a lemon
▢ ½ shallot
▢ 2 cloves garlic
▢ 2 tablespoons sherry vinegar
▢ 1½ tablespoons extra virgin olive oil
▢ 1 tablespoon kosher salt
▢ fresh cracked pepper, garlic salt, dried onion, Worcestershire sauce, to taste
▢ fresh basil, parsley, cilantro, jalapeno peppers, and lemon slices (optional)

If you prefer skinless tomatoes, you can blanch them in a pot of boiling water for about 40 seconds, or until the skin begins to peel off. Remove the skin. If you like the skin on, simply skip this step (this is my preference).

Dice tomatoes, bell pepper and cucumber into similar sized pieces. Place half of them in the blender with the shallot, garlic, olive oil, vinegar and salt. Liquefy until smooth. Pour the liquid into a glass container, and stir in the remaining diced vegetables. If you want to use the fresh herbs and jalapeno pepper, they can either be minced and added into the blender, or put directly into the soup, depending on your preference. If you find that the soup is not “soupy” enough, you can add some plain tomato juice until it is a good consistency. Refrigerate the soup for at least 3 hours, or overnight if you can. This allows the flavors to blend.

Serve in chilled bowls, topped with fresh minced herbs, lemon slices, jalapeno pepper rounds, and/or croutons. A splash of high quality virgin olive oil in each bowl will add a depth of flavor as well.

Yes, it does call into question the accuracy of my statistics.

I do make mistakes. This is one of the reasons I often put citations in my articles. That is so you can check my work.

It is also why I put my math in documents. I don’t just give you a number. I tell you how I got to that number. I.e. I show my work.

$$\mathrm{P(A)}=\frac{f}{N}$$

Where P(A) is the probability of an event (A) occurring, f the frequency of the event, and N is the total number of occurrences.

So if there is a 1 in 5 chance, the probability is $\frac{1}{5}=0.200$.

The probability of events A and B happens is $\mathrm{P(A\; and\; B)}=\mathrm{P(A)}\times \mathrm{P(B)}$.

Using De Morgan’s Law, we know that NOT (A or B) is equal to NOT A and NOT B. When addressing the question of rape, we are looking for the probability of a woman NOT being raped in year 1 AND of not being raped in years 2, and so forth. This if the probability of being raped is 1 in 4 while in collage, that means that we have NOT(P(rape(y1)) or P(rape(y2)) or P(rape(y3)) or P(rape(y4)) = 3/4 = 0.75. Y1 through y4 represent years at collage. We are assuming a four-year collage.

P(rape(yN)) is fixed at some value, for the sake of argument and ease of calculation.

$$\begin{array}{ccc}{\mathrm{P(rape(Y))}}^4& =& 0.75\\ \mathrm{P(rape(Y))}& =& \sqrt[4]{0.75}\\ \mathrm{P(rape(Y))}& =& 0.930604859\end{array}$$

Now that we know what the probability of a woman not being raped, per year, while in collage. We can restate it as the probability of a woman being raped. That is simply $1–0.930604859$ or 0.06939514. Converting to a percentage, that gives us a 6.94% chance of a woman being raped per year at collage.

We want to convert this to per capita using 100K. This is simply multiplying the percentage by 100,000 which gives us 6939 per 100,000 women attending collage.

You can verify the formulas used at —How To Calculate Probability: Formula, Examples and Steps, Indeed Career Guide, (last visited Aug. 4, 2024).

So what about the other direction? I used two sources. One was found using “rapes per capita by state” and the other was “rapes per capita by country”. The value given for rapes per capita by states for the US was 40 per 100k. The per country gave us 41.77 per 100k. This being close enough to 40 that I choose to use the 40 per 100k as being “good enough”.
—Rape Statistics by Country 2024, (last visited Aug. 4, 2024)

Using 40/100000 gives us $\mathrm{P(rape(Y))}=0.0004$. This gives the probability of not being raped as $0.9996$. Using our formula for multiple occurrences and using a 50-year span, we get ${0.9996}^{50}=0.9802$. This means that the probability of a woman being raped over the course of 50 years is 0.0198 or 1.98%.

As Elrod stated, this all depends on your definition of rape. Definitions matter. As an example, in some countries, like the UK, it is not a murder unless the person is convicted of murder. So, again as Elrod said, a man with 6 bullet holes in the back of his head is just a dead person, not a murder victim, until and unless a person is convicted of the crime.

Rape is much the same. Different places have different definitions. In particular, the US statistics I used were “forcible rape”. This has a better definition than just the word “rape”.

All of the above is just to get to the following paragraph.

I struggle with dyslexia. The result of this is that once I type a word, it always looks correct to me. Or almost always. Spell checkers go a long way to fixing simple misspellings. I have to work to misspell a word.

I also pay for a plugin called LanguageTool. This does grammar analysis as well. Unfortunately, if the word I am using is grammatical correct, LanguageTool often does not catch my errors.

In the course of an article, I will expect between 10 and 100 error corrections. I apologize for those that get through.

Here is a word that I hope you do not struggle with, sweet and sweat. One of those words means a nice thing to eat, filled with yummy sugar like flavor. The other is what happens when you exercise.

I don’t think you want me to give you a sweat tart on Halloween.

I believe I have that correct, I would have to look up the word in a dictionary in order to double-check it.

So please, if I make a mistake, call me on it. If I don’t give you the references, it is likely because I didn’t bother to click the buttons to make a citation, I was lazy. Call me on it.

This dude looks relaxed and laid back as he takes the Bronze. What is spectacular, in this picture, is that he doesn’t look like a cyborg. No fancy gizmos, nothing except ear plugs and prescription glasses.

Why is some random ex-cop from Turkey taking a bronze in a shooting competition? The top four slots should all be Americans.

USA! USA! USA! Rah rah rah.

How many of you have precession air guns? I have one. And it isn’t great. If I had a few hundred to spend on a good air-rifle, I have enough to spend on a good rifle.

My guess is that air-pistol and air-rifle competition just isn’t that popular in the states. We have young children competing in shooting sports. Often times starting with their parents’ firearms.

Those that are superb get sponsorships and are soon professionals, which means they don’t qualify for the Olympics.

Since they added snowboarding to the Winter Olympics, maybe we can hope they will add Three Gun or one of the other standard shooting sports. At that point, I would expect to see more American’s taking medals. Until then, I’m going to laugh at the people who think that a guy shooting with limit equipment is something unheard of.

Then I’m going to the range and putting a few hundred rounds down range. A mix of 9mm, 0.45.

I’ve talked in the past about how I didn’t feel that Trump was “presidential” in his first election bid and term. I stand by that. He lost his temper a number of times, was rude and unruly, and generally was not the sort of person I wanted to hold up proudly as “my country’s leader.” Whether he did good things or not, he did not act presidential nearly enough.

In the past month, I have been watching Trump. He has learned from his first term, in my opinion. He’s toned down a lot of the rhetoric. He isn’t being as rude, while continuing to be as strong and steadfast. I can stand behind that. I admit, I still don’t like listening to his campaign speeches, because they tend to ramble. But at least they’re in complete sentences and refer to actual things that happened or might happen, and aren’t fictions like Biden.

On the other hand, we have Harris. Harris has taken things to a WHOLE new level:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTNXjyMkF/

You will have to click it to see it, I believe. I am just blown away at even the idea of someone twerking at a presidential rally. Really? The bar has been lowered to the point where we’re all wearing snorkels to avoid drowning. I can’t even.

Trump has his moments. While I appreciated his humor at the Black Journalist interview he did, the commentary about Harris “becoming black” will come back to haunt him (and us). That’s the kind of humor you share at home, and not in a massive stadium. The zinger isn’t worth it. Other than that one-off, I thought Trump did very well at the interview, especially considering the venue. He was polite, he answered their questions even when they seemed to want to talk over him while he was doing so, and he largely kept on topic. I haven’t watched the entire thing, but I’ve seen about half of it in clips. I was impressed. It’s on YouTube in its entirety if you care to watch it.

Then there’s Harris. She’s going on national tv to tell people that she wants him to “say it to her face.” I personally think he probably isn’t debating her right now because she is not THE candidate. That won’t happen until the end of August, at the DNC. She’s running as if she is the choice, but that is not yet set in stone. Her presenting herself as the presumptive choice is bold.

I’m running out of steam. I’m sad at the circus going on. I’m sad to see people that I consider close friends, drinking the koolaid of the left and believing things that are outright lies.

I just do not get it. At least that’s what I keep saying. That isn’t as true as it used to be, but I still don’t thoroughly understand it.

We run risk assessments all the time. Most people do a shitty job of it. They conflate probability of occurring with the amount put at risk.

As an example, consider the following bet, “I will bet you this $10 bill at a 3:1 payout.” That means I will get back $30 if I win, and I will forfeit my $10 bet if I lose.

If you can afford to lose $10, you might take that bet.

Now, let’s say that you have a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Over the course of 8 games, you will win 2 times for $60. You will have bet $80. The house walks away with $20.

This is how casinos make their money. It is not always this obvious, but it is the same thing.

Now consider a second type of bet, one where you are betting $10 on the flip of a coin against $10. The odds and the payout are a match. Over an extended number of plays, you will come out even.

Would you be willing to bet $100 on the flip of a coin? $1000? $100,000? Your life?

This is risk assessment. It is looking at both the probability of the event taking place and the “cost” of the event.
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